Chris Antlitz, Principal Telecom Analyst, at Technology Business (TBR), has analyzed the growth potential of 6G that will become a reality in 2030 or before.
Chris Antlitz attended the 2024 Brooklyn 6G Summit in New York. The theme of the annual telecom event was 6G – From Vision to Action. It was hosted by Nokia and NYU Wireless.
TBR has identified top tips for decision makers to consider before planning investments in 6G, especially in light of the challenges faced by the global telecom industry and the uncertainties around monetization, deployment, and ROI:
# Assess ROI Expectations
Realize that 6G may continue the trend from 5G, where a clear return on investment remains elusive. Prepare for potential lower-than-expected returns unless clear monetization strategies are established.
# Understand the Technology Scope
6G may focus more on spectral efficiency, network performance, and enhanced frequency bands, rather than entirely new connectivity models. Be cautious of expecting revolutionary changes; instead, consider 6G as a refinement of LTE and 5G.
# Evaluate Industry Demand
Unlike previous generations, 6G demand might be limited. The primary driver may be cost reduction per bit for supporting data traffic, not groundbreaking new services. This could mean that demand will mainly come from industries focused on high data efficiency.
# Focus on Edge Computing
With enterprises moving towards private networks and hyperscalers building edge solutions, investment in edge computing assets could offer a more strategic opportunity than traditional CSP channels for 6G.
# Monitor Private Cellular Network Trends
Companies are increasingly deploying private networks, which can deliver similar benefits to 6G without relying on CSPs. This could diminish the traditional role of CSPs and reshape the investment landscape.
# Prepare for Longer Deployment Cycles
The 6G cycle may extend longer than 5G due to system complexities and slower data growth. Expect that any returns on 6G investments may not materialize as quickly as with previous generations.
# Analyze Hyperscaler and Government Interests
Hyperscalers, governments, and enterprises (particularly defense) are expected to derive the most benefit from 6G. Look for investment opportunities that align with their interests, especially if they involve security, AI, or edge computing capabilities.
# Emphasize Sustainability and AI Integration
Integrating AI, machine learning, and sustainable practices into 6G networks will likely be critical for long-term viability. Prioritize investment options that factor in these elements for future-proofing and regulatory alignment.
# Consider Security and Post-Quantum Cryptography
As security remains a top concern, investments in post-quantum cryptography and other advanced security measures within 6G infrastructure could offer a unique advantage and potential demand in the future.
# Stay Updated on Standardization Progress
Keep an eye on the 3GPP standards (e.g., Release 21) for 6G. Staying informed on new standards will help you gauge how technology is progressing and identify realistic timelines for network capabilities and investments.
Investing in 6G will require a strategic approach that factors in long-term trends, alternative network models, and evolving enterprise needs. By tempering expectations and diversifying across related technologies, investors can position themselves to benefit from the opportunities that do arise.
# 6G opportunity and impact
6G will primarily operate in the upper midbands, specifically within the 7-24 GHz range, with 7-15 GHz identified as the “golden range” due to its ideal balance between coverage and capacity. This spectrum offers about 1600 MHz of potential bandwidth in the U.S., enabling faster and more efficient network performance.
6G may require CSPs to share spectrum with existing users like government agencies and satellite operators. Utilizing frameworks like CBRS’s Spectrum Access System will be essential for smooth coexistence, potentially encouraging further cooperation between commercial and governmental stakeholders.
Since the upper midband spectrum lacks wall penetration capabilities, 6G will need a mix of spectrum tranches and complementary technologies, like beamforming and frequency aggregation, to support indoor coverage. Lower frequency bands may also be used to boost indoor signal reach, as most wireless traffic originates indoors.
Satellite-based NTN will expand to become a mainstream connectivity option for consumers and businesses by the end of the decade. This will allow satellite services to complement traditional cellular networks, offering essential communications like text messaging and broadband services in previously inaccessible areas.
By extending network coverage to nearly the entire global population, NTNs could significantly narrow the digital divide. Satellites can provide reliable coverage in remote and underserved areas, closing a gap that affects around 800 million people worldwide and enhancing global connectivity equity.
6G’s high-speed, low-latency capabilities will support new applications in fields such as immersive extended reality (XR), real-time holographic communication, and massive IoT, enabling industries to push the limits of automation, telemedicine, and smart infrastructure.
With the integration of AI and quantum-resilient encryption, 6G will have the potential to enhance security. However, with its complexity, 6G may also introduce new vulnerabilities, necessitating ongoing advances in data privacy, cryptographic standards, and secure connectivity protocols.
Private cellular networks, which allow enterprises to manage their own connectivity, are a rising trend. With the benefits of 6G technology, enterprises may bypass CSPs entirely, challenging traditional telecom operators by reducing their role in certain sectors.
6G is expected to rely heavily on AI and machine learning to enhance network management, optimize bandwidth, and deliver smart service adjustments in real time. This will open new avenues for AI-driven applications, especially in smart city infrastructure, autonomous transportation, and industrial IoT.
Given the complexity of 6G technologies and the slow ROI from 5G, the 6G deployment cycle will likely extend longer than previous generations. This could impact the immediate market opportunity, with initial investments focusing on network efficiency rather than transformative technology deployment.
FWA could play a more prominent role in 6G. Currently underutilized, FWA has the potential to provide high-capacity broadband to underserved areas, offering an affordable alternative to traditional broadband. 6G can optimize FWA by integrating spectral efficiency technologies tailored specifically for it, thus freeing up capacity for other network uses.
To boost network performance and reduce costs, 6G will likely enable MNOs to aggregate licensed and unlicensed spectrum, including the 6 GHz band. By incorporating unlicensed bands, operators can expand coverage and capacity without additional spectrum costs, making 6G more accessible and efficient.
6G will drive advancements in network efficiency to address the rising energy demands of high-performance networks. While new energy paradigms may ultimately be necessary, 6G can facilitate initial energy efficiency gains through optimized network architectures, energy-aware protocols, and AI-driven resource management, helping to alleviate the industry’s energy footprint.
6G will be AI-empowered, with AI and ML initially focused on optimizing network functions. Use cases like ray tracing, channel management, and dynamic spectrum sharing can enable real-time adaptability, increasing network efficiency and performance. These optimizations will make networks more resilient, although balancing AI’s energy demands will be key to its sustainable application.
As energy challenges persist, 6G networks can promote partnerships for clean energy sources like small modular reactors (SMRs) and renewable options. This could provide the telecom industry with reliable, low-carbon power, aligning 6G infrastructure with global sustainability goals and improving the environmental impact of network operations.
6G’s low latency, high bandwidth, and intelligent network management capabilities open opportunities for next-gen applications like real-time digital twins, autonomous system control, and immersive virtual reality. These applications could revolutionize sectors such as industrial automation, telemedicine, and entertainment, positioning 6G as more than just an improvement in connectivity but as a fundamental enabler of the next digital era.
These factors suggest that while 6G holds tremendous promise, its implementation will be complex, and CSPs, enterprises, and governments will need to carefully navigate its challenges to unlock its full business potential, TBR said.
Baburajan Kizhakedath
