GlobalData has released a report highlighting the growth in the number of 4G subscribers in Australia vs 5G subscribers.
5G subcriber growth in Australia will be significant as 48 percent will be on the latest mobile technology platform in 2024. 5G subcribers in Australia will account for 60 percent in 2025 and 70 percent in 2026. 5G subcribers in Australia will account for 82.5 percent in 2028 vs 77 percent in 2027.
GlobalData also highlights significant trends and projections in the telecom and pay-TV sectors in Australia. The report foresees a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.1 percent for telecom and pay-TV services revenue from 2023 to 2028, driven primarily by the expansion in mobile data and fixed broadband segments.
Key Insights from the Report:
Mobile Voice Service Decline: Mobile voice service revenue is projected to decline at a CAGR of 1.4 percent from 2023 to 2028. This downturn is attributed to a shift towards over-the-top (OTT) communication platforms, leading to a decrease in mobile voice average revenue per user (ARPU).
Mobile Data Revenue Growth: Mobile data revenue is expected to rise at a CAGR of 5.9 percent, propelled by the increase in mobile internet subscriptions, the growing adoption of 5G services, and an overall rise in mobile data ARPU.
4G vs. 5G Subscriptions: In 2023, 4G services held the largest market share in terms of subscriptions. However, this share is anticipated to decline as subscribers transition to 5G. By 2028, 5G subscriptions are expected to dominate, accounting for 82.5 percent of total mobile subscriptions. This shift will be driven by consumer demand for high-speed connectivity, network expansions, and promotional 5G plans.
Telstra’s 5G Expansion: Telstra’s 5G coverage reached over 85 percent of Australia’s population in 2023, with plans to expand to 95 percent by the end of 2025.
Fixed Communication Services: The report also projects a decline in fixed voice service revenue due to losses in circuit-switched subscriptions and decreasing fixed voice ARPU. Conversely, fixed broadband service revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.3 percent from 2023 to 2028, driven by the increase in fiber broadband subscriptions.
Fiber Broadband Growth: The demand for higher-speed broadband and the expansion of the fiber-optic network infrastructure by the Australian government are key factors supporting this growth.
Pay-TV Services: Revenue from pay-TV services is expected to decline due to subscription losses in direct-to-home (DTH) and cable TV services. This trend is exacerbated by a growing preference for OTT video alternatives like Netflix, Disney+ Hotstar, Binge, and Amazon Prime.
Market Leadership: Telstra maintained its leadership in the mobile, fixed voice, fixed broadband, and pay-TV services markets in 2023 and is expected to continue leading through 2028. Telstra’s focus on 5G network expansion and fiber network initiatives underpins its dominant market position.
