MTN Consulting said it expects telco capex – the main driver of the telco network infrastructure market – to dip from $315 billion in 2023 to $295 billion – $305 billion in 2024.
Capex of telecom operators will start to rise again in a couple of years, reaching $331 billion in 2028. The spending outlook for the US market is appealing in the short-term due to government funding (BEAD and RDOF).
Telco network infrastructure vendor revenues were $48.6 billion (down 8.1 percent) in 1Q24. Telco network infrastructure vendor revenues were $208.3 billion (down 9.7 percent) for the annualized 1Q24 period overall.
Excluding Huawei, the telco network infrastructure market declined by 10.5 percent in the latest single quarter. Huawei appears to have turned a corner in the latest two quarters.
The top three telco network infrastructure vendors are: Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia. They account for 37.4 percent of the total telco network infrastructure market in annualized 1Q24, or 34.1 percent in 1Q24 alone. ZTE and China Comservice are in the 4th and 5th positions.
Meanwhile, Dell’Oro Group said the global RAN is expected to decline 8 percent to 12 percent outside of China.
The top 5 RAN suppliers based on their worldwide revenues in Q1 2024 are Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung.
Huawei’s RAN revenue share is up in 1H 2024. ZTE’s RAN revenue is stable. Nokia/Ericsson are together down 3 to 4 percentage points.
