The Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2024 has revealed forecast on 5G subscriptions, 5G growth, and mobile data traffic trends.
5G subscriptions
Around 320 service providers have launched commercial 5G services, and more than 60 have deployed or launched 5G SA.
Global 5G subscriptions will reach around 6.3 billion in 2030, equaling 67 percent of total mobile subscriptions at the end of the decade.
5G standalone (SA) subscriptions are projected to account for around 3.6 billion out of these 6.3 billion.
5G is expected to become the dominant mobile access technology by subscription in 2027 as against the previous target of 2028.
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will have the highest 5G penetration in 2030 at 93 percent, followed closely by Western Europe at 92 percent and North America at 91 percent.
At the end of 2024, North America is forecast to have the highest 5G subscription penetration globally at 71 percent, followed by North East Asia at 51 percent, the GCC countries at 47 percent and Western Europe at 41 percent.
During the third quarter of 2024, around 160 million 5G subscriptions were added to reach a total of 2.1 billion.
5G subscriptions are expected to reach close to 2.3 billion at the end of 2024, accounting for more than 25 percent of all mobile subscriptions.
By the end of 2024, 5G mid-band population coverage outside of mainland China is expected to reach 40 percent.
4G
During the third quarter, the number of 4G subscriptions fell by 69 million, to total just below 5.1 billion. 3G subscriptions declined by 31 million during the quarter, while 2G subscriptions dropped by 34 million.
Data traffic
5G is expected to carry 80 percent of the total mobile data traffic by the end of 2030. 5G’s share of mobile data traffic will reach an estimated 34 percent by the end of 2024, an increase from 25 percent at the end of 2023. This share is forecast to grow to 80 percent in 2030.
The quarter-on-quarter mobile network data traffic growth between Q2 2024 and Q3 2024 was around 4 percent. Monthly global mobile network data traffic reached 157 EB driven by both rising smartphone subscriptions and increasing average data volume per subscription, fueled primarily by increased viewing of video content. At the end of 2024, video traffic is anticipated to account for 74 percent of all mobile data traffic.
Total global mobile data traffic – excluding traffic generated by Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) – is expected to grow by a factor of around 2.5 to reach 303 EB per month in 2030. When FWA is included, total mobile network data traffic is anticipated to grow by a factor of around three, rising to 473 EB per month by the end of the forecast period.
6G
Following on from the launches of 5G SA and 5G Advanced, 6G is expected to arrive during 2030. The Ericsson report has also revealed the number of 6G subscriptions in the year 2023.
Baburajan Kizhakedath
