Operator capex during 2024–2030 will reach $1.3 trillion as mobile service providers will step up their investment in 5G network, GSMA Intelligence said.
For comparison, revenue of mobile operators will be reaching $1.25 trillion in 2030 from $1.08 trillion in 2024.
The number of mobile subscribers will reach 6.5 billion with 76 percent penetration rate in 2030 from 5.8 billion with 71 percent penetration rate in 2024. The number of Internet customers will reach 5.5 billion with 64 percent penetration rate in 2030 from 4.7 billion with 58 percent penetration rate in 2024.
ARPU growth will be strongest in LMICs, with a projected CAGR of 3 percent between 2024 and 2030 (versus 1 percent in high-income countries). The limited prospects for mobile revenue growth mean there is increased pressure on operators to diversify their services and generate new revenue streams in adjacent areas.
5G investment
Over 80 telecom operators in more than 60 markets plan to launch commercial 5G services. Many of these new deployments will be in emerging markets, where regulators are actively granting 5G licences to accelerate adoption.
In Egypt, for instance, the National Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (NTRA) issued 5G licences to Vodafone Egypt, Orange Egypt, and e& Egypt in October 2024, following an earlier licence for Telecom Egypt, marking a major step in the country’s 5G rollout.
Consumer interest in 5G remains strong, with GSMA Intelligence data showing nearly half of 5G users have added or are interested in add-ons, compared to 33 percent of 4G users, with video streaming as the most popular option.
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) has emerged as a key consumer use case, with 144 5G FWA networks in 70 countries by December 2024, representing 48 percent of 5G mobile networks.
Operators and 5G ecosystem players, particularly in leading markets, are now focusing on deploying advanced 5G networks to enhance services for consumers and businesses. A critical part of this transition is the deployment of 5G standalone (SA) networks, which is gaining momentum after a slow start.
More than 50 percent of operators surveyed in the GSMA Intelligence network transformation survey identified 5G SA as a top investment priority, and as of December 2024, 60 operators globally had launched commercial 5G SA services, with Asia Pacific and Europe accounting for two-thirds of these networks.
5G-Advanced
Operators are also prioritizing 5G-Advanced, with 80 percent planning to launch within two years of standard releases and over 90 percent within three to four years.
Verizon has already introduced enhanced video calling on iPhones using 5G-Advanced features like network slicing, improving connectivity in congested areas for apps such as Zoom, FaceTime, and WhatsApp.
China Mobile leveraged its 5G-Advanced network to enhance the spectator experience at the 2024 Shanghai marathon with live 3D broadcasts and offers differentiated service upgrades that generate additional revenue.
Du has taken a step forward by launching a 5G-Advanced Commercial Innovation Centre in Dubai to explore new services across consumer, home, and enterprise segments, leveraging the improved capabilities of 5G-Advanced over traditional 5G.
Baburajan Kizhakedath
