China’s telecom and pay-TV services revenue is projected to rise from $471 billion in 2024 to $483 billion in 2029, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.5 percent, according to GlobalData.
Mobile voice revenues in China are set to decline sharply, while gains in mobile data and IoT will drive the market forward, GlobalData’s latest China Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report indicated.
Mobile voice service revenue in China is expected to contract at a CAGR of 19 percent between 2024 and 2029 due to the rapid shift toward OTT communication platforms, leading to falling average revenue per user (ARPU).
In contrast, mobile data services in China will see a 5.3 percent CAGR over the same period, supported by rising 5G adoption, premium data plans, and increased internet usage. By Q1 2025, China had already deployed 4.4 million 5G base stations, underscoring its rapid infrastructure expansion.
Machine-to-Machine (M2M) and IoT subscriptions will grow at over 8.5 percent CAGR during 2024–2029, as enterprises adopt smart solutions powered by 5G. China Mobile, for example, offers IoT solutions in smart ports, factories, airports, energy, and healthcare, enhancing efficiency through real-time monitoring and automation.
In fixed communications, revenues from fixed voice will continue to decline, while fixed broadband revenues will shrink marginally due to ARPU pressure and slower new line growth. Fiber will remain dominant, bolstered by government and operator investments, with China targeting nationwide 1,000 Mbps optical fiber coverage by 2025.
Pay-TV services revenue in China is forecast to rise, led by IPTV subscriptions and higher ARPU. Meanwhile, China Mobile will maintain its dominance in both mobile and fixed broadband markets through aggressive 5G investments and fiber expansion.
GlobalData’s telecom analyst Sarwat Zeeshan notes that 5G accounted for 70.2 percent of mobile subscriptions in 2024 and will remain the leading technology. Government support, operator investments, and affordable 5G plans will ensure sustained growth, positioning China Mobile as the leader in both consumer and enterprise segments through 2029.
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China Mobile
As of mid-2025, China Mobile’s mobile customer base crossed 1.005 billion, with a net addition of ~0.56 million in the first half of 2025. 5G network customers of China Mobile reached ~599 million, making up ~59.6 percent of its total mobile base.
In H1 2025, China’s operators cumulatively added over 100 million new 5G subscribers, with China Mobile contributing ~47 million.
China Mobile plans to deploy 340,000 new 5G base stations in 2025, targeting a total of nearly 2.8 million by year-end. It is also investing in 5G-Advanced (5G-A) upgrades, allocating about 9.8 billion yuan to upgrade over 400,000 base stations.
The operator recently acquired a 14.4 percent stake in HKBN (Hong Kong broadband provider) — boosting its footprint in Hong Kong’s broadband / fiber space.
China Unicom
As of end-June 2025, China Unicom had 213.5 million 5G network subscribers — an increase of ~10 million in Q2 alone. Unicom had disclosed 276.2 million 5G package subscribers in Q2 2024. China Unicom has 1.2 billion connectivity subscribers (including mobile, broadband, IoT) in H1 2025.
In H1 2025, Unicom’s capex fell ~15 percent to CNY 20.2 billion, and it expects full-year outlay to decline ~10 percent to ~CNY 55 billion. Its large-scale 5G-Advanced deployment was underway: the network covers over 330 cities.
China Telecom
In Q1 2025, China Telecom’s mobile subscriber base was ~429.47 million, with a net quarterly gain of ~4.95 million. In the first half of 2025, the operator added 31.3 million 5G users, bringing its 5G base to ~282 million.
China Telecom plans to invest ~10 billion yuan in 5G-Advanced in 2025, upgrading in 330 cities by October. Its 2025 capital expenditure is expected to drop ~11 percent to CNY 83.6 billion, as the heavy initial 5G rollout phase wanes.
Baburajan Kizhakedath
