Mobile data traffic will increase nearly 11-fold over the next four years and reach an annual run rate of 190 exabytes by 2018, while 4G traffic will grow 18-fold from 2013 to 2018, at 78 percent CAGR, said Cisco.
Cisco Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast says the increase in mobile traffic is partly due to growth in the number of mobile Internet connections such as personal devices and machine-to-machine (M2M) connections, which will exceed 10 billion by 2018.
The incremental amount of traffic being added to the mobile Internet between 2017 and 2018 is 5.1 exabytes per month, which is more than three times the estimated size of the entire mobile Internet in 2013 (1.5 exabytes per month).
From 2013 to 2018, Cisco anticipates that mobile traffic growth will outpace global fixed traffic growth by a factor of three.
Mobile data traffic trends
By 2018, there will be 4.9 billion mobile users, up from 4.1 billion in 2013.
By 2018, there will be more than 10 billion mobile-ready devices/connections — including 8 billion personal mobile devices and two billion M2M connections, up from seven billion total mobile-ready devices and M2M connections in 2013.
Average global mobile network speeds will nearly double from 1.4 Mbps in 2013 to 2.5 Mbps by 2018.
By 2018, mobile video will represent 69 percent of global mobile data traffic, up from 53 percent in 2013.
Globally, 54 percent of mobile connections will be “smart” connections by 2018, up from 21 percent in 2013. Smart devices and connections have advanced computing/multi-media capabilities and a minimum of 3G connectivity.
Smartphones, laptops, and tablets will drive about 94 percent of global mobile data traffic by 2018. M2M traffic will represent five percent of 2018 global mobile data traffic while basic handsets will account for 1 percent of global mobile data traffic by 2018. Other portables will account for 0.1 percent.
Mobile cloud traffic will grow 12-fold from 2013 to 2018, a 64 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
In 2013, M2M connections represented nearly five percent of mobile-connected devices in use and generated more than one percent of total mobile data traffic
By 2018, M2M connections will represent nearly 20 percent of mobile-connected devices in use and generate almost six percent of total mobile data traffic.
In 2013, there were 21.7 million global wearable devices. By 2018, there will be 176.9 million global wearable devices or a 52 percent CAGR.
The average mobile connection is expected to nearly double from 2013 to 2018. Mobile connection speeds are a key factor in supporting/accommodating mobile data traffic growth.
4G data traffic
By 2018, 4G connections will support 15 percent of all connections, up from 2.9 percent in 2013.
By 2018, 4G connections will support 51 percent, or 8 exabytes per month, of total mobile data traffic, up from 30 percent, or 448 petabytes per month, in 2013.
4G traffic will grow 18-fold from 2013 to 2018, a 78 percent CAGR.
More mobile data traffic will be offloaded onto Wi-Fi from mobile-connected devices (17.3 exabytes per month) than will remain on mobile networks by 2018 (15.9 exabytes per month).
By 2018, 52 percent of global mobile traffic will be offloaded onto Wi-Fi/small cell networks, up from 45 percent in 2013.
Mobile video traffic will increase 14-fold from 2013 to 2018 and will have the highest growth rate of any mobile application category.
By 2018, mobile video will be 69 percent of global mobile traffic, up from 53 percent in 2013.
By 2018, web and other data applications will be 17 percent of global mobile traffic, down from 28 percent in 2013.
By 2018, streaming audio will be 11 percent of global mobile traffic, down from 14 percent in 2013.
By 2018, file sharing will be three percent of global mobile traffic, down from four percent in 2013.
