Myanmar’s mobile penetration rate is about 50 percent among adults in the country’s urban areas, according to Analysys Mason.
A research report by Analysys Mason says this is a much higher figure than the 3–10 percent estimates suggested during the past few years.
Myanmar has between 1200 and 1600 base stations, which supports the understanding that the country has little or no rural coverage.
More than half of all subscribers we surveyed had been using a phone for fewer than 12 months, which indicates that the market has experienced enormous year-on-year growth.
Analysys Mason expects Myanmar’s overall mobile penetration rate to exceed 50 percent by 2017.
It seems unlikely that the government’s stated target of 50 percent mobile penetration by 2015 is achievable because of the lack of infrastructure outside the cities.
Take-up in urban areas will continue to grow rapidly: almost 40 percent of non-subscribers we surveyed intend to own and use a phone in the next 12 months.
Recent discounting of SIM cards via a lottery system has increased access to mobile phones among low-income groups.
The average price paid to date for a SIM card among those we questioned was still a staggering USD450, which indicates both that these measures are having a limited impact and that consumers have a strong willingness to pay for access to services.
Its forecast assumes a rapid network build-out, including deployments in rural areas as well as capacity increases to serve the remaining 50 percent of the urban population.
Several inhibiting factors could undermine this optimistic outlook. Some groups in urban areas show a definite lack of interest in services, and the willingness and ability to pay in rural areas remains untested.
Furthermore, operators working in areas close to Myanmar’s borders will need to compete with Chinese and Thai networks, which are reportedly popular among Myanmar’s early adopters and are likely to be superior to the country’s own networks for the foreseeable future.
Interestingly, companies such as Airtel, SingTel, etc. are looking for an entry into the Myanmar telecom market.
Since roughly 65 percent of population of the country lives in a rural area, Analysys Mason’s survey did not cover them. In addition, the agency surveyed only those between 18 and 65 years old, which exclude 13 percent of the population.
