Global mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of 292 exabytes by 2019, up from 30 exabytes in 2014, says Cisco annual Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Forecast for 2014 to 2019.
The number of wearable devices globally will grow five-fold from 2014 to 2019, reaching 578 million devices by 2019. The majority of this growth will take place in North America and Asia Pacific, Cisco report said.
Mobile traffic from wearable devices will grow 18-fold from 2014 to 2019.
By 2019, 54 percent of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded onto Wi-Fi networks.
By 2019, the number of Wi-Fi-capable tablets and PCs (1.9 billion) will be nearly 3.5-times the number of cellular-capable tablets and PCs (542 million)
By 2017, VoWi-Fi traffic (10.8 PB/year) will exceed VoLTE traffic (10.7 PB/year).
As laptops adopt tablet-like features, laptop forecast figures are showing improved growth rates. Tablet growth has been impacted by that same trend, the research said.
In 2014, the average mobile laptop/netbook connection generated 2.6 GB/month. By 2019, the average mobile laptop/netbook connection will generate 5.6 GB/month.
By 2019, there will be approximately 11.5 billion mobile-ready devices/connections—including 8.3 billion personal mobile devices and 3.2 billion M2M connections.
By 2019, mobile video will represent 72 percent of global mobile data traffic (up from 55 percent in 2014). Video will have the highest growth rate of any mobile application category.
In 2014, M2M applications generated 70 MB of mobile data traffic/month. By 2019, M2M applications will generate 366 MB of mobile data traffic/month.
From a global mobile network perspective, 3G is expected to surpass 2G as the top cellular technology, based on connection share, by 2017.
By 2019, 3G networks will support 44 percent of global mobile devices and connections; 4G networks will support 26 percent of connections, though will generate 68 percent of traffic.
Trends driving mobile data traffic growth include the rise in mobile users, mobile connections, availability of more mobile videos, impact of M2M connections and faster connectivity.
By 2019, there will be 5.2 billion mobile users (up from 4.3 billion in 2014), which represents more than 69 percent of the world’s population.
By 2019, there will be approximately 11.5 billion mobile-ready devices/connections, including 8.3 billion personal mobile devices and 3.2 billion M2M connections – up from 7.4 billion total mobile-ready devices and M2M connections in 2014.
Average global mobile network speeds will increase 2.4 fold from 2014 (1.7 Mbps) to 2019 (4.0 Mbps).
By 2019, mobile video will represent 72 percent of global mobile data traffic (up from 55 percent in 2014).
The number of wearable devices globally will grow five-fold, reaching 578 million by 2019, up from 109 million in 2014, with the majority of devices anticipated in North America and Asia Pacific. This is expected to fuel 18-fold growth in mobile traffic from wearable devices between 2014 and 2019, with most of it channeled through smartphones.
Many global service providers are deploying 4G technologies to address consumer and business users’ strong demand for wireless services and content. Cisco predicts 26 percent of all global devices and connections will be 4G capable by 2019.
The number of 4G connections globally will grow 18-fold, from 459 million in 2019 to 3 billion by 2019.
By 2017, 3G will surpass 2G as the top cellular technology based on connection share.
In 2014, 4G connections accounted for 40 percent of total mobile data traffic; by 2019, 4G connections will account for 68 percent of total mobile data traffic.
In 2014, the average 4G connection generated 2.2 GB of mobile data traffic per month; by 2019, the average 4G connection will generate 5.5 GB of mobile data traffic per month, 5.3X higher than the 1.04 GB/month for the average non-4G connection.
Wi-Fi offload traffic surpasses cellular traffic. According to Cisco, in 2014, 46 percent of total mobile data traffic was offloaded; by 2019, 54 percent of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded.
Without offload, the 2014 – 2019 global mobile data traffic compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for global mobile data traffic would be significantly higher (65 percent instead of 57 percent).
Cisco’s study on VoWi-Fi finds that VoWi-Fi has the potential for significant growth over the next five years.
By 2017, VoWi-Fi traffic (10.8 PB/year) will exceed VoLTE traffic (10.7 PB/year).
By 2018, VoWi-Fi will exceed VoLTE in the number of minutes used per year.
By 2019, VoWi-Fi minutes of use will account for more than half – 53 percent – of all mobile IP voice traffic.
By 2019, the number of Wi-Fi-capable tablets and PCs (1.9 billion) will be nearly 3.5-times the number of cellular-capable tablets and PCs (542 million).
Driven by the growing adoption of cloud applications and services such as Netflix, YouTube, Pandora, and Spotify, mobile cloud traffic will grow nearly 11-fold from 2014 (2 exabytes/month) to 2019 (21.8 exabytes/month).
In 2014, cloud applications accounted for 81 percent of total mobile data traffic; by 2019, cloud applications will account for 90 percent of total mobile data traffic.
In terms of mobile data traffic growth rates over the forecast period, the Middle East and Africa region is projected to have the highest regional growth rate.
The Middle East and Africa will have a 72 percent CAGR and 15.3-fold growth
Central and Eastern Europe will have a 71 percent CAGR and 14.4-fold growth
Asia-Pacific will have a 58 percent CAGR 9.7-fold growth
Latin America will have a 59 percent CAGR and 10.1-fold growth
North America will have a 47 percent CAGR and 6.8-fold growth
Western Europe will have a 48 percent CAGR and 7.1-fold growth
In terms of mobile data traffic generation, the Asia-Pacific region is projected to generate the most mobile data traffic.
Asia-Pacific: 9.5 exabytes per month by 2019
North America: 3.8 exabytes per month by 2019
Western Europe: 2.4 exabytes per month by 2019
Central and Eastern Europe: 3.5 exabytes per month by 2019
The Middle East and Africa: 3.0 exabytes per month by 2019
Latin America: 2.0 exabytes per month by 2019
Commenting on the results, Doug Webster, VP of Service Provider Products and Solutions Marketing, Cisco, said, “The ongoing adoption of more powerful mobile devices and wider deployments of emerging M2M applications, combined with broader access to faster wireless networks, will be key contributors to significant mobile traffic growth in the coming years.”
Webster added, “This mobile-centric environment will give service providers a new landscape of challenges and opportunities to innovatively deliver a variety of mobile services and experiences to consumers and business users as the Internet of Everything (IoE) continues to take shape.”
editor@telecomlead.com
