The global satellite-to-phone market is moving from trials to commercial competition in 2026, creating a new revenue opportunity for mobile operators and a battleground for SpaceX’s Starlink, AST SpaceMobile and Amazon Leo.
Unlike traditional satellite broadband, direct-to-device (D2D) technology connects ordinary smartphones directly to satellites when terrestrial coverage disappears.
Omdia forecasts satellite D2D services will reach 411 million monthly active users and $11.99 billion in annual revenue by 2030, representing average annual growth of 80.1 percent in users and 49.4 percent in revenue between 2026 and 2030.
Gartner estimates a $20.2 billion D2D low-Earth-orbit satellite connectivity opportunity, while GSMA Intelligence estimates D2D could generate more than $30 billion of incremental connectivity revenue for telecom operators by 2035.
The competition increasingly centres on telecom partnerships. Starlink has the largest operational satellite-to-mobile network, AST SpaceMobile has agreements with more than 60 operators covering over 3 billion subscribers, and Amazon has strengthened its position through its planned acquisition of Globalstar and agreement to support Apple satellite services.
Starlink Leads With 650 Direct-to-Mobile Satellites
Starlink has established an early deployment advantage through SpaceX’s ability to manufacture and launch satellites rapidly.
Its mobile constellation has reached around 650 low-Earth-orbit satellites, making it the largest satellite-to-mobile constellation. The network supports data, voice, video and messaging and is expected to become available to more than 1.7 billion people through mobile-operator partnerships.
GSMA Intelligence reported in May 2026 that Starlink was already providing services to 7.4 million monthly unique devices across approximately 30 countries using its 650 D2D satellites.
Partners include T-Mobile US, Optus, Telstra, Rogers Communications, KDDI, One NZ, Globe Telecom, Salt, Entel and Kyivstar.
Japan demonstrates how satellite roaming could expand. KDDI added Canada to international satellite roaming for au Starlink Direct customers from June 2026 and planned availability in the Philippines and New Zealand alongside existing US connectivity.
Starlink’s Direct to Cell network and operator strategy shows how SpaceX intends to integrate satellite connectivity with existing mobile networks.
Starlink’s model also allows operators to retain billing, spectrum ownership and customer relationships while SpaceX provides the satellite coverage layer. Operators could monetise this through premium tariffs, add-ons, roaming, emergency services and enterprise IoT plans.
However, satellite connectivity remains primarily a coverage service. GSMA Intelligence said T-Mobile’s T-Satellite traffic represented only 0.0002 percent of the operator’s total US network usage in May 2026.
AST SpaceMobile Reaches More Than 3 Billion Subscribers
AST SpaceMobile is perhaps Starlink’s most direct competitor in telecom distribution.
By August 2026, AST had agreements with more than 60 mobile network operators collectively covering over 3 billion subscribers.
Partners include AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and Saudi Telecom Company, or stc.
AST has an agreement to provide SpaceMobile connectivity to AT&T customers in the continental US and Hawaii and signed a definitive commercial agreement with Verizon for direct-to-cellular services beginning in 2026.
In October 2025, AST signed a 10-year commercial agreement with stc covering Saudi Arabia and other markets. Vodafone is also involved in distributing SpaceMobile services to operators across Europe, the UK and selected additional markets.
The company’s financial profile is beginning to reflect commercialisation.
AST generated $31.5 million in Q2 2026 revenue, mainly from gateway deliveries and US government milestones. Full-year revenue is expected to reach $150 million-$200 million, compared with $70.9 million in 2025.
Revenue backlog increased to approximately $1.30 billion, including commercial contracts and US government awards. Government awards already exceed $125 million.
AST reported more than $3.7 billion in pro forma cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash at June 30 and raised another $1.15 billion through convertible senior notes in July.
Infrastructure expansion is accelerating as well. Nearly 50 gateways were in various stages of completion, installation and planning in August.
AST is targeting 45-60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026, with launches approximately every one to two months. BlueBird 11, 12 and 13 were launched on August 5.
AST SpaceMobile’s 2026 telecom and satellite strategy outlines its subscriber reach, backlog and deployment plans.
Amazon Leo Enters the Direct-to-Phone Race
Amazon Leo, previously Project Kuiper, has emerged as another major competitor.
Amazon announced an agreement in April 2026 to acquire Globalstar, providing access to satellites, infrastructure and mobile satellite service spectrum. The transaction is expected to close in 2027, subject to approvals.
Amazon has also secured a significant distribution opportunity through Apple. Amazon Leo will support satellite services for compatible iPhone and Apple Watch models, including emergency messaging, communications and roadside assistance.
Amazon’s longer-term ambition is much larger.
In July 2026, Amazon Leo sought FCC approval for a dedicated D2D constellation containing as many as 5,105 satellites.
Deployment is scheduled to begin in 2028, supporting voice, messaging, data and emergency services directly to compatible mobile devices.
Amazon’s separate broadband constellation is already expanding. In March, the company said it had launched more than 200 satellites, with another 200-plus stacked for launch.
Amazon planned more than 20 missions during its second deployment year and had invested more than $200 million in Cape Canaveral infrastructure.
By its Q1 results announcement, Amazon had completed its tenth Leo launch and placed more than 250 satellites in orbit.
Its broader broadband network is designed for more than 3,000 satellites, supported by more than 80 contracted launches from Arianespace, Blue Origin, SpaceX and United Launch Alliance.
Amazon Leo’s direct-to-device strategy provides more details on the proposed 5,105-satellite network.
Vodafone Gives Amazon Another Telecom Route
Amazon is also pursuing operator partnerships rather than depending entirely on direct consumer sales.
Vodafone and Amazon Leo expanded their partnership in March 2026 to use the LEO network to connect additional 4G and 5G mobile sites across Europe and Africa where terrestrial backhaul is difficult or expensive.
Amazon also has satellite relationships with Australia’s National Broadband Network, DirecTV and Herotel.
Vodafone’s simultaneous relationships with Amazon Leo for satellite backhaul and AST SpaceMobile for direct-to-device connectivity indicate that operators may use multiple satellite networks for different applications.
Satellite-to-Phone Market Heads Toward 411 Million Users
Omdia expects global satellite D2D services to reach 411 million monthly active users and $11.99 billion of annual service revenue by 2030.
More than 95 percent of global D2D monthly active users are expected to use cellular-standard devices by 2030, favouring services that work with conventional 4G and 5G smartphones rather than dedicated satellite phones.
Deloitte estimates spending on D2D satellite capacity could reach $6 billion-$8 billion in 2026, with more than 1,000 D2D-capable satellites potentially operating by year-end.
The broader LEO satellite industry could exceed 15 million subscribers in 2026 and generate around $15 billion in annual revenue.
The geographic opportunity is also enormous. GSMA Intelligence estimates terrestrial mobile networks still do not cover approximately 62 percent of the Earth’s landmass.
Who Is Winning the Satellite-to-Phone Race?
Starlink currently leads deployment with approximately 650 D2D satellites, 7.4 million monthly unique devices and operations across about 30 countries.
AST SpaceMobile leads in potential operator reach. Its 60-plus operator partners serve more than 3 billion subscribers, while its expected $150 million-$200 million 2026 revenue, $1.30 billion backlog and planned 45-60 satellites indicate that commercialisation is accelerating.
Amazon Leo is the long-term wildcard. Its proposed 5,105-satellite D2D constellation, Globalstar acquisition, Apple relationship, more than 3,000 planned broadband satellites and 80-plus contracted launches could dramatically increase competition from 2028.
For telecom operators, the larger opportunity is additional revenue without constructing thousands of low-utilisation rural cell sites.
GSMA Intelligence estimates potential incremental ARPU of roughly $4-$5 per person per month among addressable users and more than $30 billion of incremental connectivity revenue by 2035.
The satellite-to-phone contest is therefore becoming more than a technology race between Starlink, AST SpaceMobile and Amazon Leo. It is a competition to control the next layer of global mobile coverage and capture billions of dollars in telecom revenue from locations terrestrial networks cannot economically reach.
FASNA SHABEER
