6G is set to become the next major evolution in mobile technology, with deployments expected from 2030. Large-scale rollouts are likely to start in regions with advanced digital infrastructure, including China, Japan, South Korea, the US, the GCC states, Europe, Vietnam and India. By 2040, 6G connections could exceed 5 billion, accounting for roughly half of all global mobile connections, GSMA Intelligence report said.
Although leading markets will reach or surpass 100 percent penetration, adoption will lag in many low and middle-income regions. As a result, 4G and 5G will remain critical throughout the next decade, with around 2 billion 4G connections and 3 billion 5G connections still active globally by 2040.
According to the latest Ericsson Mobility Report, global 6G subscriptions are expected to reach 180 million by the end of 2031, excluding early AI-enabled IoT use cases.
Rising Mobile Data Demand Toward the 6G Era
Mobile traffic growth will continue to accelerate as existing use cases expand and new ones emerge. Video and gaming will remain dominant, while next-generation applications like extended reality (XR) and network sensing will benefit significantly from 6G. Global mobile traffic is expected to reach between 1,700 and 3,900 EB per month by 2040, with average traffic per connection increasing to between 140 and 360 GB per month. Annual global traffic growth is projected at 10 to 25 percent, influenced heavily by AI-driven uplink requirements and increased demand for low latency.
Even if emerging applications see limited adoption, data demand will rise as more users shift to 5G and 6G networks. In 2024, markets where 5G represented at least 30 percent of mobile broadband connections recorded data consumption levels 2.5 times higher than markets where 5G represented less than 10 percent. This trend highlights how network capability directly correlates with user behaviour.
The Rise of Power Users
A significant portion of mobile traffic continues to come from a relatively small group of heavy users. Today, 10 percent of mobile users generate 60 to 70 percent of total network traffic. By 2040, these high consumption patterns are expected to become normal, driven by younger generations who already consume mobile data more frequently and intensively. As this demographic ages, their usage habits will push overall demand even higher.
Growing Spectrum Needs in the 6G Era
6G will place new demands on spectrum beyond traditional uplink and downlink capacity. Many 6G-powered services, such as immersive communication, digital twins and network-assisted mobility, will require end-to-end latencies of 10 ms or less. Meeting these targets will require wider spectrum channels to minimise delays and reduce congestion.
Understanding the geographic distribution of mobile traffic is essential for future spectrum planning. In a sample of 10 countries, 83 percent of all mobile traffic was generated in urban areas, despite these zones representing only around 5 percent of total land area. Very dense urban locations carry traffic per square kilometre that is 9 times higher than other urban areas and almost 700 times higher than rural regions. These figures highlight the localized nature of peak network demand and the need for targeted capacity planning in dense urban environments.
6G development
6G development is progressing rapidly, with the first commercial deployments expected around 2030. Although IMT-2030 standards are still being finalised, the industry has already outlined key usage scenarios, technical requirements and network capabilities through ITU-led efforts, large-scale trials and collaborative research initiatives.
6G is expected to evolve from 5G standalone and 5G-Advanced through a modular, incremental upgrade path. It will improve multiple performance areas, including higher spectral efficiency, advanced modulation, enhanced MIMO and more sophisticated beamforming. These advancements will boost network capacity even within existing spectrum bands. A major leap will come from AI-native network architecture, where intelligence is embedded directly into network design and real-time operations, far beyond the AI features introduced in 5G-Advanced.
On the demand side, 6G will elevate the performance of established use cases such as video and gaming while enabling new applications. These include immersive communication, telepresence, multi-modal interaction, collaborative robotics and services requiring precise location, mapping and sensing. Enterprise and industrial sectors will increasingly rely on mobile networks for augmented reality workflows, automated systems and smart infrastructure monitoring, requiring dedicated network resources and guaranteed service levels.
Outlook
By 2040, 6G connections could surpass 5 billion, or about half of all global mobile connections. Adoption is expected to reach or exceed 100 percent in leading regions but will lag in many low and middle-income markets. As a result, 4G and especially 5G will continue to play key roles through 2040, with an estimated 2 billion 4G and 3 billion 5G connections still active. This mix will shape spectrum strategies, as not all current bands can be shifted fully to 6G.
Baburajan Kizhakedath
