Indonesia’s mobile services market is set for steady expansion over the next five years, fueled by rising mobile data consumption, accelerating 5G adoption, expanding spectrum resources and continued operator investments in next-generation networks.
According to GlobalData’s Indonesia Mobile Services Forecast (Q1 2026), the market is projected to grow from $10.2 billion in 2025 to $12.1 billion by 2030, representing a 3.4 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
GlobalData expects strong growth in mobile data services to offset the continued decline in traditional voice and messaging revenues as Indonesian consumers increasingly rely on over-the-top (OTT) applications such as WhatsApp and Telegram for communication.
Mobile data service revenue is forecast to increase at a 4.8 percent CAGR between 2025 and 2030, supported by expanding mobile internet subscriptions, growing adoption of premium 5G services and increasing demand for cloud applications, video streaming, gaming, social media and AI-powered digital services. Business users, urban consumers and cross-border travelers are also contributing to higher mobile broadband usage and greater spending on premium connectivity.
At the same time, traditional voice revenue is expected to continue declining as voice average revenue per user (ARPU) falls. Telecom operators are increasingly bundling unlimited or free voice minutes with mobile plans, while internet-based communication platforms continue replacing conventional voice services.
Indonesia’s digital economy is also driving a rapid increase in mobile data traffic. GlobalData estimates that average monthly mobile data consumption will rise from 20 GB in 2025 to 30.3 GB by 2030, reflecting stronger demand for online video, short-form content, cloud applications, digital payments, AI services and social networking platforms. The increase in data usage is creating new monetization opportunities through larger data bundles, premium mobile plans and differentiated connectivity services.
The country’s transition to 5G is gathering momentum. Although 4G remained the dominant mobile technology in 2025, GlobalData expects its share of subscriptions to decline steadily as consumers migrate to faster 5G networks. Wider availability of affordable 5G smartphones, expanding network coverage and increasing demand for premium broadband services are expected to accelerate 5G adoption through 2030.
Government policy is supporting this transition with a target of expanding 5G population coverage to more than 30 percent by the end of 2030, creating a stronger platform for advanced consumer applications, enterprise connectivity, industrial digitalization and AI-enabled services. The rollout of 5G is expected to deliver faster download speeds, lower latency, greater network capacity and new digital service opportunities.
Indonesia’s leading mobile operators are continuing to invest heavily in network expansion and digital infrastructure. Telkomsel is expected to maintain its leadership throughout the forecast period. As of March 2026, the operator had achieved more than 97 percent 4G population coverage and had deployed more than 2,500 5G base stations across 56 cities by mid-2025. Through its Hyper 5G strategy, Telkomsel is expanding services in cities including Batam, Denpasar and Badung while deploying AI-powered autonomous network technologies to improve operational efficiency and customer experience.
Telkomsel also remains Indonesia’s largest mobile operator with approximately 156 million subscribers, accounting for nearly 48 percent of the country’s mobile market. Digital services now contribute more than 90 percent of the company’s revenue, highlighting the industry’s shift toward data-driven business models.
Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison (IOH) is expanding its 5G footprint across major urban markets while investing in AI-enabled networks, cloud partnerships, enterprise connectivity and digital services. Rather than focusing solely on subscriber growth, the operator is prioritizing premium mobile data offerings and enterprise digital transformation to increase customer value.
Competition is also intensifying following the formation of XLSmart through the merger of XL Axiata and Smartfren. The combined operator serves approximately 73 million subscribers, strengthening competition while accelerating nationwide 5G deployment and network integration.
Indonesia is simultaneously expanding spectrum availability to support future mobile growth. During 2026, the government awarded additional 700 MHz and 2.6 GHz spectrum to leading operators, increasing the country’s total licensed mobile spectrum from approximately 452 MHz to 712 MHz. The expanded spectrum resources will improve network capacity, broaden 4G and 5G coverage and enable operators to deliver faster broadband services as mobile data traffic continues to rise.
Operators are increasingly aligning their commercial strategies around data monetization rather than legacy voice and SMS services. Investments in 4G and 5G expansion, AI-driven network automation, segmented mobile data plans and premium digital services are expected to strengthen customer engagement and improve ARPU. Growing demand for video streaming, cloud services, AI applications, digital commerce, IoT connectivity and enterprise mobility is further encouraging operators to introduce higher-value connectivity offerings.
GlobalData believes Indonesia’s mobile communications market is entering a new phase where sustained growth will be driven primarily by mobile broadband. With market revenue expected to reach $12.1 billion by 2030, mobile data revenue growing at a 4.8 percent CAGR, monthly data consumption increasing to 30.3 GB, 5G coverage exceeding 30 percent, licensed spectrum expanding from 452 MHz to 712 MHz, and continued investments from Telkomsel, Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison and XLSmart, Indonesia is well positioned to remain one of Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing telecom markets over the remainder of the decade.
FASNA SHABEER
