India’s mobile services market is on a steady growth trajectory, fueled by rising consumer spending on data-centric offerings, increasing rural penetration, and the accelerating adoption of 5G services.
According to GlobalData, mobile services revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4 percent, rising from $30.2 billion in 2023 to $39.3 billion by 2029. This growth is underpinned by increasing mobile service penetration, especially in underserved rural areas, and a strong shift toward 5G-driven mobile data consumption.
Rural India
As of March 31, 2025, India had 531.18 million rural wireless subscribers, accounting for 45.64 percent of the total wireless user base. Reliance Jio led with 211.38 million rural users, representing 39.79 percent of the rural market and 44.47 percent of its own user base. Bharti Airtel followed with 192.42 million rural subscribers, making up 36.22 percent of the rural market and 49.21 percent of its total users, according to the latest TRAI data.
Vodafone Idea had 97.57 million rural subscribers, which accounted for 18.37 percent of the rural market and 47.51 percent of its total user base. BSNL served 29.80 million rural users, contributing 5.61 percent to the rural market and 32.73 percent of its total subscribers.
While revenue from mobile voice services is expected to decline at a CAGR of 2.5 percent — largely due to the rise of internet-based communication and bundled voice plans — mobile data services are set to compensate for this dip. Data revenue is forecast to grow at a robust CAGR of 9.3 percent between 2024 and 2029, buoyed by expanded 4G and 5G network availability and increasing uptake of higher-value 5G plans.
The average monthly data consumption in India is expected to more than double from 23.9GB in 2024 to 51.5GB in 2029, driven by the widespread consumption of online video and social media content. Telcos are actively responding to this demand with data-heavy packages and promotional plans. For example, Reliance Jio has launched a “5G Upgrade Voucher” offering unlimited 5G data for a year to prepaid customers, helping drive early adoption of 5G services.
Although 4G remains dominant for now, 5G subscriptions are expected to overtake 4G by 2026 and represent 67 percent of total mobile subscriptions by 2029, according to GlobalData.
Investment
Operators like Vodafone Idea are rapidly expanding their 5G footprint, targeting coverage across all 17 circles by August 2025. This momentum is further supported by increased availability of affordable 5G-enabled smartphones and bundled value-added services.
Jio is poised to maintain its leadership in the mobile services market through 2029, leveraging its widespread 4G coverage and continued 5G rollouts. The company’s aggressive network expansion strategy and innovative consumer offerings are aligned with rising demand for high-speed connectivity across both urban and rural areas.
Leadership
Reliance Jio remains the market leader in India’s telecom sector, holding 40.66 percent share in the access segment with 488.19 million subscribers as of March 2025. Bharti Airtel follows with 401.14 million subscribers, while Vodafone Idea and BSNL have 206.19 million and 98.74 million subscribers respectively. In internet services, Reliance Jio leads with a 49.18 percent market share, followed by Bharti Airtel at 31.33 percent and Vodafone Idea at 13.84 percent, according to the latest data from Indian telecom regulator TRAI.
India’s 5G subscriptions are expected to reach 980 million by 2030, accounting for nearly 75 percent of all mobile users, up from 290 million (24 percent) at the end of 2024, according to the Ericsson Mobility Report. The country currently leads the world in mobile data consumption, with average monthly smartphone usage at 32 GB, projected to rise to 62 GB by 2030.
As of end-2024, 5G mid-band networks cover 95 percent of the population. Growth is fueled by increasing data demand, wider 5G smartphone adoption, mid-band spectrum availability, and 5G FWA expansion. Meanwhile, 4G subscriptions are expected to decline from 53 percent share in 2024 to 230 million by 2030, Ericsson Mobility Report June 2025 indicated.
Baburajan Kizhakedath
