By Telecom Lead Team: Global
mobile data traffic will increase 18-fold over the next five years, reaching
10.8 exabytes per month — or an annual run rate of 130 exabytes — by 2016.
The
increase in mobile traffic is due to a surge in the number of mobile
Internet-connected devices, which will exceed the number of people on earth.
During
2011-2016, global mobile data traffic will outgrow global fixed data traffic by
three times, according to the Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile
Data Traffic Forecast for 2011 to 2016.
This
mobile data traffic increase represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
78 percent spanning the forecast period. The incremental amount of traffic
being added to the mobile Internet between 2015 and 2016 alone is approximately
three times the estimated size of the entire mobile Internet in 2012.
The following
trends are driving these significant increases:
1.
More Streamed Content: With the consumer expectations increasingly requiring
on-demand or streamed content versus simply downloaded content, mobile cloud
traffic will increase, growing 28-fold from 2011 to 2016, a CAGR of 95 percent.
2.
More Mobile Connections: There will be more than 10 billion mobile
Internet-connected devices in 2016, including machine-to-machine (M2M) modules
— exceeding the world’s projected population at that time of 7.3 billion.
3.
Enhanced Computing of Devices: Mobile devices are becoming more powerful and
thus able to consume and generate more data traffic. Tablets are a prime
example of this trend generating traffic levels that will grow 62-fold from
2011 to 2016 — the highest growth rate of any device category tracked in the
forecast. The amount of mobile data traffic generated by tablets in 2016 (1
exabyte per month) will be four times the total amount of monthly global mobile
data traffic in 2010 (237 petabytes per month).
4.
Faster Mobile Speeds: Mobile network connection speed is a key enabler for
mobile data traffic growth. More speed means more consumption, and Cisco
projects mobile speeds (including 2G, 3G and 4G networks) to increase nine-fold
from 2011 to 2016.
5.
More Mobile Video: Mobile users want the best experiences they can have and
that generally means mobile video, which will comprise 71 percent of all mobile
data traffic by 2016.
The
Cisco study also projects that 71 percent of all smartphones and tablets (1.6
billion) could be capable of connecting to an Internet Protocol version 6
(IPv6) mobile network by 2016. From a broader perspective, 39 percent of all
global mobile devices (more than 4 billion), could be IPv6-capable by 2016.
