Telecom Lead America: Sales of base station processors are likely to grow at 17 percent per year to reach $1.1 billion in 2017.
The growth will be primarily driven by the demand for compact format femto-, pico-, and microcell small cell basestations.
Macrocells are likely to decline at 13 percent per year over the next 5 years, while microcells are growing at 7 percent.
ABI Research said the large growth in picocells and outdoor femtocells will consume the majority of next generation base station processors. As the number of these compact femtocells and picocells grows, the penetration of system-on-chip basebands will grow at 108 percent annually to reach almost 80 percent of the total market in 2017.
With a capacity shortfall looming, service providers are deploying Heterogeneous Networks (HetNets) with small cell underlays in dense urban areas and using distributed Radio Access Networks (RANs) to narrow the gap between capacity and demand, and all of these techniques are driving integration into the next generation base station baseband.
“These next generation baseband processors are heterogeneous multicore SoC devices including both DSP and CPU cores for control and data plane processing along with hardware acceleration and connectivity for backhaul and radio interfaces,” said Nick Marshall, principal analyst, mobile networks, ABI Research.
This segment is also seeing merger and acquisition activities. Examples include: Broadcom’s acquisition of Provigent, Percello and NetLogic, Mindspeed’s purchase of Picochip, Wavesat’s sale to Cavium, Xilinx’s acquisition of Modesat, and Qualcomm’s purchase of DesignArt.
These M&A activities indicate that there are significant revenue opportunities for baseband SoCs in the distributed RAN and HetNet segments and that vendors are positioning themselves to challenge current leaders Freescale Semiconductor and Texas Instruments.
With the latest SoCs available or becoming available over the next 6-9 months in 28nm silicon technology these will be some of the most advanced baseband ICs ever produced and raise the bar in terms of complexity.
