TrendForce, a leading market intelligence firm, has released a report highlighting significant capital investments in the memory sector, particularly driven by the high average selling price (ASP) and profitability of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).
Avril Wu, Senior Vice President of TrendForce, pointed out that the DRAM industry is poised to allocate approximately 14 percent of its total capacity — equivalent to around 250K/m — to producing HBM Through-Silicon Via (TSV) by the end of 2024.
This increase in capacity is expected to result in an estimated annual supply bit growth of about 260 percent. Furthermore, the revenue share of HBM within the DRAM industry, which stood at 8.4 percent in 2023, is projected to surge to 20.1 percent by the close of 2024.
There are production disparities between HBM and DDR5 memory. Notably, the die size of HBM is typically 35–45 percent larger than DDR5 of the same process and capacity, resulting in a lower yield rate of approximately 20–30 percent for HBM compared to DDR5. Additionally, the production cycle for HBM, including TSV packaging, is 1.5 to 2 months longer than that of DDR5.
With order volumes for HBM continuing to rise steadily into 2024, buyers seeking sufficient supply will need to secure their orders earlier due to the longer production cycle of HBM, spanning over two quarters from wafer start to final packaging. Most orders for the year 2024 have reportedly already been submitted to suppliers, with non-cancellable terms unless validation failures occur.
Samsung and SK Hynix are at the forefront of HBM production plans for the year. Samsung aims to ramp up its total HBM capacity to approximately 130K (including TSV) by the end of the year, while SK Hynix targets around 120K, subject to validation progress and customer orders.
In terms of market share for current mainstream HBM3 products, SK Hynix dominates with over 90 percent, although Samsung is expected to gain ground with the gradual release of AMD’s MI300 over the upcoming quarters.
The tightening supply of HBM underscores the escalating demand in the memory market, driven by emerging technologies and applications that require high-performance memory solutions. As the industry navigates these dynamics, stakeholders must adapt their strategies to ensure adequate supply amid increasing competition and evolving customer needs.
