While the 3G network and service rollouts are already
underway in India, there are a set of players strenuously working on launching
BWA services in India. Knowledgefaber believes that TD-LTE enabled BWA networks
and services will be launched in the second quarter of 2012.
Globally, wireless broadband services using WiMAX
technology have been launched as early as in 2006. However, lack of strong
roadmap, economic recession and LTE readiness has adversely affected the growth
of WiMAX technology around the world. Players such as Clearwire (US) and Yota
Networks (Russia), who have successfully launched multiple consumer services
using WiMAX resulting in significant uptake, have announced their migration to
LTE. Many global operators have announced their launch or migration to LTE.
Knowledgefaber’s research shows that the Indian players
will also use LTE technology for rolling out BWA services. The auction of 20MHz
block of contiguous, unpaired spectrum has made TD-LTE a very compelling choice
for the Indian players. India could potentially be one of the first markets in
the world (along with Australia and China) to launch TD-LTE enabled services.
While Reliance-Infotel (company formed post Reliance Industries acquisition of
Infotel Broadband Services Pvt. Ltd.) is the only private player to acquire
pan-India BWA spectrum. Other players such as Airtel and Aircel have acquired
spectrum in select circles either to complement their 3G network circles or
build on their market leadership. As per Knowledgefaber estimates, the Capex
investments for Greenfield rollouts of TD-LTE network will be in the range of
US $3bn to $3.5bn.
There are number of Government (B2G), Enterprise (B2B)
and Consumer (B2C) services that can be enabled by BWA in India. Of the
thirteen different services that Knowledgefaber has analyzed, projected uptake
and revenues for; Geo-Spatial and Video Surveillance service in B2G,
Tele-Education in B2B and Mobile Wireless Broadband (through data cards) in B2C
segments have the maximum RoI potential. These three services together could
potentially contribute to a revenue ranging from US $737mn to over US $1.05bn
by FY’13 (assuming BWA commercial launch in Q2, 2012 and depending on
subsidized data cards offerings by BWA carriers).
Knowledgefaber believes that TD-LTE enabled
handheld-based consumer services such as Mobile Internet and Video based
services will witness slow adoption, primarily due to limited handheld devices
availability and uptake. Some players can also potentially look at partnering
with existing mobile operators to offer data offload” services on their BWA
networks.
As for the TD-LTE devices availability, Knowledgefaber
believes that Data Cards, Mi-Fis, Tablets and Embedded Laptops would be
prioritized, and given the potential scale in India, the price points of these
devices at launch would be significantly lower than the current global prices.
Knowledgefaber has analyzed and built a case for potential price reduction of
chipsets and devices in this report.
In this report, Knowledgefaber has also analyzed various
Business and Go-To-Market strategy options including technology of choice,
services rollout strategy, device bundling and service integration strategy,
key partnerships, etc., for different BWA players in India, along with key
recommendations for various players across the value chain.
By Amit Goel, Knowledgefaber
