The global recorded music market is on track for another year of strong expansion, with retail sales forecast to reach $48.3 billion in 2026, exceed $50 billion in 2027, and climb to $56.8 billion by 2030, according to Omdia. The forecast highlights the industry’s continued resilience, with 2026 marking the 12th consecutive year of annual retail sales growth.
Omdia expects the industry to achieve another important milestone by the end of 2028, when the number of years of recorded music revenue growth this century will surpass the number of years of decline.
Subscription-based music streaming services including Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube Music will remain the primary engine of industry expansion. Subscription revenue is projected to increase 7.2 percent to $30.5 billion in 2026, up from $28.4 billion in 2025.
By 2030, subscription revenue is forecast to exceed $37 billion, supported by a 5.4 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) during the forecast period.
Advertising revenue is also expected to deliver healthy gains. Combined audio and video advertising revenue is forecast to grow 5.6 percent to $5.3 billion in 2026, before reaching $6.2 billion by 2030.
Over the next five years, advertising revenue is expected to grow at a 4.3 percent CAGR, outperforming physical music sales, which are forecast to expand at a 3.4 percent CAGR.
Despite the rapid growth of streaming, physical music formats will continue to play a significant role in the global music industry. Omdia expects physical recorded music sales to reach $8.3 billion by 2030, although annual growth is projected to slow to 1.9 percent by the end of the forecast period. Physical formats will remain the second-largest source of recorded music revenue globally.
The geographic landscape of the music business is also changing. China is expected to continue its rapid rise in the global rankings after entering the top five music markets in 2022 by overtaking France.
Omdia forecasts China will surpass the United Kingdom in 2028 and Japan in 2029, becoming the world’s second-largest recorded music market. China’s share of global recorded music retail revenue is projected to increase from 5.8 percent in 2025 to 8.7 percent by 2030.
The United States is forecast to retain its leadership position in the global recorded music industry, although its market share is expected to decline slightly from 40.3 percent in 2025 to 38.4 percent by 2030 as international markets expand faster.
According to Simon Dyson, Senior Principal Analyst at Omdia, the outlook remains highly positive, with global recorded music retail sales expected to reach new record highs over the next five years.
Omdia also projects that the industry will achieve the $60 billion retail sales milestone early in the next decade, while China’s emergence as the world’s second-largest music market will represent one of the most significant shifts in the global music business.
BABURAJAN KIZHAKEDATH
