DRAM revenue of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron is likely to decline in Q3 2022, according to TrendForce.
DRAM industry revenue increased 6.5 percent quarter-on-quarter to $25.59 billion in the second quarter of 2022.
The primary reason for 2Q22 revenue growth came from an increase in bit shipments from some of the DRAM suppliers. Though PC and mobile DRAM were hit hard by inflation and weak demand, momentum in the server DRAM market remained strong in 1H22, driving quarterly shipment growth at the three top manufacturers to 5~10 percent.
Top DRAM manufacturers are Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron.
Micron benefited from demand for servers and automobiles with its 2Q22 revenue reaching $6.27 billion, an increase of 9.7 percent QoQ and highest among the three.
Operating margins of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron reached 50 percent, 43 percent, and 41.5 percent, respectively.
In terms of production capacity planning, Samsung’s wafer starts continued to increase this year, and each factory is close to full capacity. While Samsung’s new P3L plant will start contributing to the production of DRAM products early next year and give priority to DRAM products using the 1alpha nm process, significantly increasing the proportion of 1alpha nm production.
SK Hynix’s wafer starts also increased slightly, at campuses such as its M16 plant in South Korea and its Wuxi plant in China. However, since M10 was migrated to logic products, total wafer starts only received a marginal boost. The M16 plant still has room to expand but considering a pessimistic demand outlook, production at this plant is only expected to increase slightly in 2023.
Micron has no new production capacity for overall wafer starts this year and the purpose of purchasing machinery is to maintain wafer start volume when processes advance. Micron introduced the 1alpha nm process in 2H21 and the 1beta nm will be put into production at its Japan factory this year. Micron will have mass production at its Taiwan factory in 2023. Micron is the fastest among the three major DRAM manufacturers when introducing processes.
In terms of Taiwanese factories, Nanya produces a higher proportion of Consumer DRAM. Due to the impact of lockdown policies on domestic Chinese demand, shipments declined significantly and overall revenue decreased by 14.0 percent QoQ. Construction of the company’s new Fab5A plant has begun with a completion date of 2025. Until the new factory is completed, annual output is only expected to increase marginally.
PSMC’s revenue calculation is primarily for its in-house standard DRAM products and does not include its DRAM foundry business. DRAM revenue increased by approximately 21.8 percent, mainly due to the company’s capacity allocation. As its foundry production capacity was revised down, it marginally increased its in-house production of standard DRAM, but if foundry revenue is added, a decreased of 1.0 percent is realized.
Winbond’s revenue declined slightly by 3.3 percent, mainly due to inventory corrections among Networking customers and a suspension of supply from TV manufacturers resulting in a decline in shipments. Winbond’s Kaohsiung plant will be entirely dedicated to 25S nm production and mass production of the next-generation 20nm process is expected in mid-2023, driving revenue growth.
