Dell’Oro Group’s latest Mobile RAN 5-Year January 2026 Forecast indicates that global RAN market conditions are stabilizing after sharp declines in 2023 and 2024 following the 5G investment peak. With no immediate growth catalysts, near-term demand for RAN is expected to remain subdued until 6G-related capital expenditure begins to ramp up later in the decade.
The research highlights that the RAN market has lost nearly $10 billion in global revenue over the past two years, reflecting a challenging environment driven by slowing mobile data traffic growth. Despite ongoing downside risks, improving sentiment around 6G is seen as a positive signal, with the potential for meaningful 6G-related revenues to emerge by around 2030.
Over the long term, RAN is not expected to be a growth market, maintaining a flat CAGR between 2000 and 2025. However, capital intensity is projected to improve as operators optimize spending ahead of future 6G investments. Worldwide RAN revenues are forecast to grow at a modest 1 percent CAGR over the next five years, as declining LTE revenues are largely offset by sustained 5G deployments and early 6G activity. RAN spending is expected to account for around 20 to 25 percent of total wireless capex during the forecast period, with outcomes remaining sensitive to traffic growth trends and operator investment strategies.
