5G network is expected to reach more than 40 percent global population coverage and 1.5 billion subscriptions in 2024, Ericsson Mobility Report said.
Increased network capacity, lower cost per gigabyte and new use case requirements are key drivers for 5G deployment. The report is silent about the 5G ARPU, 5G revenue and 5G network investments.
North America and North East Asia are expected to lead the 5G uptake.
5G subscriptions in North America are forecast to account for 55 percent of mobile subscriptions in 2024.
5G subscriptions in North East Asia are forecast to account for 43 percent of mobile subscriptions in 2024.
5G subscriptions in Western Europe are forecast to account for 30 percent of mobile subscriptions in 2024.
Service providers have announced the deployment of 85 cellular IoT networks worldwide using Cat-M1 and/or NB-IoT.1 In both Europe and Asia, deployments of Cat-M1 have commenced, while NB-IoT is now also being deployed in North America, in addition to the deployment of Cat-M1 technology.
Cellular IoT connections will reach 4.1 billion in 2024 and North East Asia will account for 2.7 billion.
Mobile data traffic in Q3 2018 grew 79 percent, the highest rate since 2013. Increased data-traffic-per-smartphone in North East Asia– mainly in China – has pushed the global figure notably higher.
North America still has the highest data traffic per smartphone, set to reach 8.6 gigabytes per month by the end of this year – which can be compared to streaming HD video for over 12 hours monthly.
Total mobile data traffic is expected to increase by a factor of five between 2018-2024. 5G networks are projected to carry 25 percent of mobile traffic by the end of the period.
5G growth
LTE in India will account for close to 30 percent of all mobile subscriptions in 2018 and 81 percent in 2024. Ericsson did not reveal its forecast on 5G subscriptions in India. 5G will be launched in India in 2022, Ericsson said.
LTE in the Middle East and North Africa will account more than 20 percent of all mobile subscriptions in 2018. LTE in Sub-Saharan Africa will account for over 7 percent of subscriptions. Ericsson did not reveal its forecast on 5G subscriptions for the Middle East and North Africa region.
250 million will have 5G accounting for 55 percent of mobile subscriptions in North America in 2024. LTE penetration is currently 87 percent in North America.
The first 5G subscriptions in Central and Eastern Europe are expected in 2019, and will make up close to 10 percent of total subscriptions in 2024.
LTE is accounting for 57 percent of all subscriptions in Western Europe. 5G is forecast to account for around 30 percent of all mobile subscriptions in 2024.
Latin America will have the first 5G deployments in the 3.5GHz band in 2019. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico are anticipated to be the first countries in the region to deploy 5G.
China will have more than 1.3 billion LTE subscriptions at the end of 2018. 5G is expected to be deployed early in South Korea, Japan and China and, by the end of the forecast period, 5G subscription penetration is projected to exceed 43 percent in North East Asia.
