Smartphone buyers planning to upgrade to the Apple iPhone 18 Pro may need to prepare for higher prices as sharply rising memory costs push up the expense of manufacturing premium smartphones. The impact may not be limited to Apple, with Android smartphone buyers potentially facing even steeper price increases across entry-level and mid-range devices.
TrendForce estimates that the bill of materials (BOM) cost of the 256 GB iPhone 18 Pro will increase about 38 percent year on year compared with its 2025 predecessor. The iPhone 18 Pro is scheduled for release in the third quarter of 2026, making component inflation an important factor for consumers considering whether to buy the latest iPhone or choose an older model.
Apple is expected to absorb part of the additional cost by sacrificing some gross margin, helping limit the retail price increase and protect iPhone shipment volumes and market share. TrendForce believes some increase in retail prices will be unavoidable.
Why iPhone 18 Pro Could Become More Expensive
Memory has emerged as one of the biggest drivers of the expected iPhone 18 Pro price increase.
An analysis of 256 GB iPhone Pro models over the past two generations shows memory accounted for only around 10 percent of total BOM cost a year ago. Its share is estimated to reach approximately 34 percent in the third quarter of 2026 and is forecast to exceed 40 percent in the first half of 2027.
The increase represents a major change in smartphone manufacturing economics. The application processor and display were traditionally among the dominant components determining the cost of a premium smartphone, but memory is rapidly becoming a much larger part of the total bill.
Memory prices have already increased by an extraordinary five to seven times since the beginning of 2025, according to TrendForce.
As a result, the BOM cost of the iPhone 18 Pro 256 GB is expected to be approximately 38 percent higher than the equivalent 2025 model when the new smartphone arrives in Q3 2026.
The cost pressure may not end with the launch. If memory prices continue rising, TrendForce expects the manufacturing cost of the 256 GB iPhone 18 Pro to increase further during 2027.
Will Apple Raise iPhone 18 Pro Prices?
For smartphone buyers, a 38 percent increase in BOM cost does not mean the iPhone 18 Pro retail price will automatically rise by 38 percent.
Apple has greater flexibility than many smartphone manufacturers because of its strong profitability. TrendForce expects Apple could adopt an approach similar to the pricing strategy used for its recent MacBook launches, absorbing some of the higher component costs through lower gross margins.
This could allow Apple to keep the iPhone 18 series price increase more manageable, helping sustain consumer demand, preserve shipment volumes and expand its smartphone market share.
There is another potential consequence for buyers waiting for discounted older iPhones.
TrendForce believes Apple could revisit prices for previous-generation iPhone models when the iPhone 18 series launches, potentially increasing prices of older devices as another way of compensating for higher memory costs.
That means consumers should not automatically assume that previous-generation iPhones will become substantially cheaper following the arrival of the iPhone 18 lineup.
Android Smartphone Prices Could Rise Even Faster
The biggest impact of the memory price surge may ultimately be felt by Android smartphone buyers.
If Apple is struggling to absorb component inflation despite its industry-leading profitability, Android smartphone manufacturers operating with lower margins could face significantly greater pressure.
TrendForce expects Android brands will need to pass a larger portion of higher component costs directly to consumers to remain profitable and avoid selling smartphones at a loss.
Consequently, retail price increases for some Android smartphones could be steeper than those for the iPhone.
Budget and Mid-Range Smartphone Buyers Face Greater Pressure
Entry-level and mid-range smartphones are particularly vulnerable because manufacturers have considerably less margin available to absorb component cost increases.
With memory prices rising five- to sevenfold since early 2025, some smartphone manufacturers may have only two realistic options: significantly increase retail prices or discontinue models that have moved into negative gross margins.
This could reduce the number of aggressively priced smartphones available to consumers, particularly in price-sensitive markets where memory and storage capacity are important purchasing considerations.
Consumers looking for affordable phones with higher RAM and storage configurations could therefore feel the impact more strongly as manufacturers adjust specifications and prices to control costs.
Should Smartphone Buyers Upgrade Now or Wait?
The TrendForce outlook suggests waiting for new smartphones may not necessarily guarantee better value.
The iPhone 18 Pro 256 GB faces a 38 percent year-on-year BOM cost increase, while memory’s contribution to iPhone Pro production cost is projected to jump from around 10 percent a year ago to 34 percent in Q3 2026 and more than 40 percent in 1H27.
At the same time, Android manufacturers may have less ability than Apple to absorb higher component costs.
For buyers, this means 2026 and 2027 could bring higher smartphone prices, fewer aggressively priced models and potentially smaller discounts on older devices if memory inflation persists.
Smartphone Market Faces Pressure Through 2027
Higher prices could eventually discourage consumers from upgrading, creating another challenge for the global smartphone industry.
TrendForce expects global smartphone production to remain under downward pressure from the second half of 2026 through 2027 as persistent increases in memory costs affect both smartphone manufacturers and consumer demand.
For buyers considering an iPhone or Android upgrade, memory prices have become an important factor to watch. The impact is no longer restricted to the cost of choosing a higher storage configuration — it could increasingly determine the retail price, specifications and availability of smartphones across the market in 2026 and 2027.
BABURAJAN KIZHAKEDATH
