Smartphone market will experience low single-digit growth from 2019 through the end of the forecast in 2022 despite the availability of 5G networks.
The IDC forecast indicates that mobile operators 5G investments in telecom networks and user aspirations for 5G mobile phones will not result into demand for 5G smartphones. 5G networks are expected to be available in 2019 and beyond.
Juniper Research today said 5G connections will reach 1.5 billion by 2025 powered by 5G mobile in Asia and the US. The report said 43 percent of 5G connections will be in Korea and Japan.
Smartphone shipments are set to dip 0.7 percent in 2018 to 1.455 billion units from 1.465 billion in 2017, said IDC.
Smartphone shipments will grow 1.1 percent in the second half of 2018. Smartphone market will reach 1.646 billion units in 2022.
China smartphone market will decline 6.3 percent in 2018.
India smartphone market will achieve a growth of 14.4 percent this year.
Indonesia smartphone market will grow at 15.4 percent in 2018.
The IDC report said Android’s smartphone share will be around 85 percent throughout the forecast and shipments will reach 1.41 billion in 2022. Android smartphone ASPs will grow 11.4 percent in 2018 to $262 from $235 in 2017.
Apple iPhone volumes are expected to grow by 2.1 percent in 2018 to 220.4 million in total. IDC is forecasting iPhones to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2 percent reaching volumes of 238.5 million by 2022.
Vendors will be selling 941.6 million units of large-screen smartphones (5.5 inch and larger) in 2018, accounting for 64.7 percent, from 623.2 million units in 2017 and 42.5 percent share. Shipments of larger screen smartphones will reach 1.391 billion units, accounting for 84.5 percent of shipment, by 2022.
The industry is experiencing a shift toward higher aspect ratios, at or near 18:9, which require a larger screen to support the widescreen viewing angle. By Q2 2018, 16:9 smartphones were overtaken by 17.5:9 aspect ratios or higher for the first time.
Huawei, OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi may focus on large screens and aspect ratios will remain a focus across their entire portfolio. The new iPhone models, which have above 6 inches, will act as another catalyst toward driving these important display trends.
“With two out of three new iPhones expected to be larger than 6 inches, Apple will not be left behind in the 2018 race for increased screen real estate,” said Melissa Chau, associate research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers.
Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, said the industry has 5G knocking at its doors, and many OEMs, retailers, telcos, and supply chain partners will be working to ensure consumers see the need to upgrade when products and services are readily available.
