TrendForce, a leading market research firm, has released its analysis of the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market, shedding light on the current business dominated by HBM3 technology as of early 2024. The report underscores NVIDIA’s forthcoming B100 and H200 models, set to integrate advanced HBM3e, marking a significant leap in memory technology.
However, the report highlights the challenges posed by supply bottlenecks, stemming from constraints in Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) packaging and the inherently lengthy production cycle of HBM. This bottleneck extends the timeline from wafer initiation to final product delivery to over two quarters, hindering meeting market demands.
The current supply of HBM3 for NVIDIA’s H100 solution heavily relies on SK Hynix, leading to a shortfall in meeting the rising demands of the AI market. In late 2023, Samsung entered NVIDIA’s supply chain with its 1Znm HBM3 products, although initially modest, marking a significant breakthrough in this sector.
A significant development noted in the report is the gradual quarterly release of HBM3e in the second half of 2024, with Samsung and Micron poised to join the supply chain.
Samsung’s progress in the HBM sector continued with its HBM3 products receiving AMD MI300 series certification by the first quarter of 2024, solidifying its position as a critical supplier to AMD. This certification opens doors for Samsung to increase its HBM3 production distribution, starting from the first quarter of 2024. Notably, Micron has yet to enter the HBM supply market, leaving SK hynix and Samsung as the primary contenders.
Looking ahead to 2024, the market’s focus is expected to shift from HBM3 to HBM3e, with a gradual increase in production anticipated in the second half of the year. TrendForce reports that SK hynix led the way with HBM3e validation in the first quarter, closely followed by Micron, which plans to commence distribution of its HBM3e products toward the end of the first quarter, aligning with NVIDIA’s planned H200 deployment by the end of the second quarter.
Although slightly behind in sample submissions, Samsung is expected to complete its HBM3e validation by the end of the first quarter, with shipments expected in the second quarter. With Samsung’s significant progress in both HBM3 and anticipated HBM3e validation, the company is poised to narrow the market share gap with SK Hynix by the end of the year, potentially reshaping the competitive dynamics in the HBM market.
