Telecom Lead India: Mobile payment transaction will grow 44 percent to $235.4 billion in 2013 from $163.1 billion in 2012.
Gartner says the number of mobile payment users will reach 245.2 million in 2013, up from 200.8 million in 2012.
Market research agency says global mobile transaction volume and value to average 35 percent annual growth between 2012 and 2017.
The market size of mobile payment transaction will be $721 billion with more than 450 million users by 2017.
Gartner has lowered the forecast of total transaction value for the forecast period due to lower-than-expected growth in 2012, especially in North America and Africa.
Near Field Communications’ (NFC’s) transaction value has been reduced by more 40 percent throughout the forecast period due to disappointing adoption of NFC technology in all markets in 2012.
The research agency lowered the forecast due to the fact that some high-profile services, such as Google Wallet and Isis, are struggling to gain traction.
Gartner forecasts that NFC will account for only about 2 percent of total transaction value in 2013 and 5 percent of the total transaction value in 2017, although growth is expected to increase somewhat from 2016 when the penetration of NFC mobile phones and contactless readers increases.
Money transfers and merchandise purchases will account for about 71 percent and 21 percent of total transaction value in 2013, respectively, making them by far the largest contributors.
People are not purchasing as much because the buying experience on mobile devices has yet to be optimized. People are spending less via mobile devices than via online e-commerce services and at retail outlets. Merchandise purchases account for about 23 percent of the total value forecast for 2017.
Gartner says bill payment value will grow 44 percent in 2013 due to higher value per transaction figures as more consumers in developed markets perform bill payments via mobile banking services.
Bill payments will account for about 5 percent of the total value forecast for 2017.
Asia/Pacific’s transaction value is expected to grow 38 percent in 2013 to reach $74 billion.
Deployments in developed markets such as South Korea and Singapore and in developing markets such as India are expected drive healthy growth in this region.
In 2016, Asia/Pacific will overtake Africa to become the largest region by transaction value, reaching $165 billion.
Africa’s transaction value is forecast to reach $160 billion in 2016. While Africa will still experience strong growth through the forecast period, companies are still searching for the most suitable business model for mobile money in their local markets.
North America’s transaction value is forecast to grow 53 percent in 2013, reaching $37 billion, up from $24 billion in 2012. The region has been impacted by low adoption of NFC payment services and many merchants launching mobile apps in a copycat fashion without a clear winning strategy.
Western Europe’s transaction value is expected to reach $29 billion in 2013, up from $19 billion in 2012. The forecast growth has been impacted by a reduction in the average number of transactions per user in 2012 as several services struggled and others launched only toward the end of the year.
