The Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2016 to 2021 has revealed the mobile data traffic – indicating the need for telecom operators to make huge investments in mobile networks.
Incidentally, telecom equipment makers such as Ericsson and Nokia are expecting a drop in the annual capital expenditures (Capex) of telecom operators.
Mobile data traffic will represent 20 percent of total IP traffic by 2021 against 8 percent of total IP traffic in 2016.
ALSO READ: Cisco Mobile Visual Networking Index for 2016-2021
There will be nearly 12 billion mobile-connected devices by 2021 against 8 billion in 2016, including M2M modules, Cisco said.
Research firm Gartner forecasts that there will be 8.4 billion (+31 percent) connected things in use in 2017, and will reach 20.4 billion by 2020. Total spending on endpoints and services will reach almost $2 trillion in 2017.
Greater China, North America and Western Europe are driving the use of connected things and the three regions together will represent 67 percent of the overall Internet of Things (IoT) installed base in 2017.
Mobile network connection speeds will increase 3-fold from 6.8 Mbps in 2016 to 20.4 Mbps by 2021, said Cisco.
63 percent of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded by 2021 against 60 percent in 2016.
In 2016, monthly offload traffic (10.7 EB) exceeded monthly mobile/cellular traffic (7.2 EB).
Public Wi-Fi hotspots including homespots will grow 6-fold from 94 million in 2016 to 541.6 million by 2021.
Wi-Fi traffic from both mobile devices and Wi-Fi-only devices together will account for 49 percent of total IP traffic by 2020 against 42 percent in 2015.
Global mobile data traffic will reach 49 exabytes per month or 587 exabytes annually by 2021.
Mobile video will increase 8.7-fold from 2016 to 2021. Mobile video will represent 78 percent of all mobile traffic by 2021.
Live mobile video will grow 39-fold from 2016 to 2021. Live mobile video will represent 5 percent of total mobile video traffic by 2021.
Regional mobile data traffic growth
The Middle East and Africa will have 12-fold growth
(2016: 7.3 exabytes/year; 2021: 88.4 exabytes/year)
Asia-Pacific will have 7-fold growth
(2016: 37.3 exabytes/year; 2021: 274.2 exabytes/year)
Latin America will have 6-fold growth
(2016: 5.4 exabytes/year; 2021: 34.8 exabytes/year)
Central and Eastern Europe will have 6-fold growth
(2016: 11.1 exabytes/year; 2021: 63.0 exabytes/year)
Western Europe will have 6-fold growth
(2016: 8.8 exabytes/year; 2021: 50.3 exabytes/year)
North America will have 5-fold growth
(2016: 16.9 exabytes/year; 2021: 76.8 exabytes/year)
M2M connections will represent 3.3 billion or 29 percent of mobile connections against 780 million or 5 percent in 2016. M2M will be the fastest growing mobile connection type as Internet of Things (IoT) applications gain traction among consumer and businesses.
4G will support 58 percent of mobile connections by 2021 against 26 percent in 2016 — accounting for 79 percent of mobile data traffic.
The number of smartphones will be over 50 percent of global devices and connections (6.2 billion) — up from 3.6 billion in 2016.
Large-scale deployments of 5G infrastructures will begin by 2020. 5G will account for 1.5 percent of mobile data traffic by 2021, and will generate 4.7 times more traffic than the average 4G connection and 10.7 times more traffic than the average 3G connection.
The Cisco report is silent about the possible growth in the number of 5G subscribers and coverage.
“With the proliferation of IoT, live mobile video, augmented and virtual reality applications, and more innovative experiences for consumer and business users alike, 5G technology will have significant relevance not just for mobility but rather for networking as a whole,” said Doug Webster, vice president of service provider marketing at Cisco.
VR headsets will grow from 18 million in 2016 to nearly 100 million by 2021 — a fivefold growth. VR traffic will grow 11-fold from 13.3 petabytes / month in 2016, to 140 petabytes / month in 2021.
AR traffic will grow 7-fold between 2016 and 2021, from 3 petabytes/month in 2016 to 21 petabytes/month in 2021.
There will be 929 million wearable devices globally, growing nearly threefold from 325 million in 2016. The number of wearable devices with embedded cellular connections will reach 69 million in number by 2021 — up from 11 million in 2016.
