China’s total fixed communications services revenue is projected to grow marginally at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.7 percent, increasing from $303 billion in 2025 to $314 billion in 2030, according to GlobalData. The slow growth will be mainly due to a decline in average revenue per user (ARPU) levels across both fixed voice and broadband segments.
Service Line Growth:
Fixed voice and fixed broadband lines are expected to grow at a CAGR of 1 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. However, overall revenue growth will be constrained by falling ARPU levels.
ARPU Trends:
Fixed voice ARPU (residential) will decline from $5.07 in 2025 to $4.35 in 2030, driven by the shift toward mobile and internet-based communication.
Broadband ARPU (residential) will drop from $31.10 to $29.53 over the same period due to operator price discounts.
Technology Outlook:
Fiber will remain the dominant broadband technology, supported by government initiatives to enhance network infrastructure. Fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) coverage, already at 99 percent of residential broadband subscriptions in 2025, is expected to reach full coverage by 2030, Pradeepthi Kantipudi, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, said.
Market Leaders:
China Mobile will retain leadership in fixed broadband subscriptions through 2030, followed by China Telecom and China Unicom. Its dominance is supported by strong FTTH presence, gigabit network upgrades, and adoption of advanced technologies such as AI-driven network management and 10G PON.
China Mobile reported about 320.05 million fixed-line broadband (wireline broadband) customers as of end-March 2025.
China Telecom reported 200.49 million fixed-line broadband customers in Q3-2025, an increase of 1.89 million quarter-on-quarter.
China Unicom had fixed-line broadband subscriber base of 113 million, an addition about 9.79 million in 2023.
China Mobile says its capex will be around RMB 173 billion for 2024 with capex-to-services revenue ratio of below 20 percent.
China Telecom is planning capex of roughly RMB 83.6 billion in 2025 as compared with RMB 93.5 billion in 2024.
China Unicom’s Capex fell 17 percent to RMB 61.37 billion in 2024.
Future Outlook:
Operators focusing on superior network performance, reliability, and bundled digital services — while maintaining operational efficiency — are expected to lead the next phase of China’s fixed broadband market growth.
Baburajan Kizhakedath
