China’s telecom and pay-TV services revenue is forecast to grow at a 1.3 percent CAGR during 2025-2030 as mobile data, 5G, fiber broadband, IoT and enterprise computing offset declines in voice and traditional television services, according to GlobalData.
The modest growth rate reflects the maturity of the world’s largest telecom market. Operators are increasingly relying on data consumption, gigabit broadband, cloud infrastructure, artificial intelligence and connected devices to generate revenue.
China mobile data revenue to grow at 4.2 percent CAGR
Mobile data services revenue is forecast to increase at a 4.2 percent CAGR during 2025-2030, supported by 5G adoption, higher mobile data ARPU, expanding internet usage and demand for digital and video-streaming services.
Mobile voice revenue is expected to decline as operators bundle voice minutes with 5G plans and customers shift toward OTT and internet-based communication applications.
China Mobile reported RMB266.5 billion in operating revenue in Q1 2026, up 1 percent year on year. Its mobile customer base reached 1.009 billion after adding 3.76 million customers during the quarter.
The operator added 3.9 million broadband customers, taking its broadband base to 333 million. It also had 668 million 5G network customers and 1.504 billion IoT connections.
5G reaches 74.7 percent of China mobile subscriptions
GlobalData Telecom Analyst Sarwat Zeeshan said 5G accounted for 74.7 percent of total mobile subscriptions in 2025 and will remain the dominant technology through 2030.
Growth is being supported by government infrastructure policies, affordable 5G plans and operator investment in coverage and network quality. China had deployed nearly 5 million 5G base stations by March 2026.
China Telecom ended Q1 2026 with 440.55 million mobile subscribers, including 314.13 million 5G network subscribers. It added 1.90 million mobile customers and 12.32 million 5G customers during the quarter.
The operator generated RMB131.4 billion in operating revenue. Mobile internet traffic rose 17.7 percent year on year, while average mobile data consumption increased 12.6 percent to 23 GB per user.
IoT strengthens enterprise telecom opportunity
China’s M2M and IoT market is expected to expand through 2030, driven by 5G modernisation, smart-city projects, industrial automation and new connected-device applications.
China Unicom had more than 750 million IoT connections, highlighting the scale of enterprise demand alongside China Mobile’s IoT business.
Chinese operators are using their 5G, cloud and network infrastructure to expand enterprise-grade IoT services and capture demand from governments, industries and multinational customers.
China Unicom plans over RMB17.5 billion computing investment
China Unicom reported Q1 2026 operating revenue of RMB102.8 billion, down 0.5 percent year on year. Service revenue was approximately RMB90.1 billion.
Its computing-power business generated RMB15.4 billion in revenue, up 8.3 percent, while data-centre revenue increased 11.7 percent.
China Unicom plans approximately RMB50 billion in capital expenditure during 2026, compared with RMB54.2 billion in 2025. More than 35 percent of its 2026 CAPEX will be allocated to computing power, indicating an investment of over RMB17.5 billion.
The spending reflects China Unicom’s expansion beyond connectivity into AI, cloud platforms, data centres and computing infrastructure.
Fiber broadband supports fixed-market growth
Fixed broadband revenue is expected to grow as customers migrate from legacy networks to higher-ARPU fiber connections.
China Telecom had 201.56 million fixed broadband customers at the end of Q1 2026 after adding approximately 440,000 during the quarter. Gigabit broadband penetration reached around 34 percent.
Fiber-to-the-home will remain the dominant fixed broadband technology under China’s full-fiber strategy. Network upgrades will support cloud applications, video streaming, connected devices and enterprise digital services.
Fixed voice revenue, however, is forecast to decline through 2030 as circuit-switched subscriptions and fixed voice ARPU fall.
Pay-TV revenue faces pressure from streaming platforms
China’s pay-TV revenue is forecast to decline slightly despite marginal subscription gains across cable television and IPTV. Falling ARPU and migration toward OTT and on-demand streaming platforms will weaken traditional television revenue.
Mobile data ARPU should benefit from 5G migration and premium data plans, while mobile voice ARPU will remain under pressure from bundled allowances and internet-based communication services.
China Mobile set to retain market leadership
China Mobile is expected to remain the leader in China’s mobile and fixed broadband markets through 2030, supported by its subscriber scale, fiber presence, 5G network and investments in next-generation technologies.
China’s next telecom growth cycle will depend on monetising 5G data, fiber broadband, IoT, cloud, AI, data centres and computing infrastructure while managing continuing declines in mobile voice, fixed voice and pay-TV services.
FASNA SHABEER
