Australia’s telecom and pay-TV services market is forecast to grow steadily through 2030 as rising 5G adoption, mobile data consumption, fiber broadband and fixed wireless access (FWA) offset declines in traditional voice and pay-TV services.
According to GlobalData, Australia’s telecom and pay-TV services revenue will increase from $20.4 billion in 2025 to $22.5 billion in 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 2 percent. Mobile data will be the strongest growth engine, while investments by Telstra, Optus, TPG Telecom and NBN Co are expected to reshape Australia’s connectivity market.
Mobile data services revenue is projected to expand at a 5.8 percent CAGR between 2025 and 2030, driven by increasing mobile internet subscriptions, higher data consumption and migration to premium 5G plans with higher average revenue per user (ARPU).
Meanwhile, mobile voice, fixed voice and pay-TV revenue will remain under pressure as Australian consumers increasingly use OTT communication and streaming platforms.
Australia 5G Subscriptions to Cross 88.7 Percent by 2030
5G already accounted for a majority of Australia’s mobile subscriptions in 2025 and is projected to represent more than 88.7 percent by 2030, according to Kantipudi Pradeepthi, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData.
Telstra, Optus and TPG Telecom are expanding and upgrading their 5G infrastructure to capitalize on rising data consumption and demand for faster connectivity.
Optus upgraded 960 network sites to 5G in FY2025, helping increase its 5G population coverage to 84.65 percent, compared with 80.5 percent in FY2024.
The shift toward 5G provides telecom operators with an opportunity to improve ARPU through premium services and higher data usage. In contrast, mobile voice revenue is forecast to decline through 2030 as consumers migrate to OTT communication applications and mobile voice ARPU falls.
Telstra Mobile Revenue Rises as Subscriber Base Reaches 25.5 Million
GlobalData identified Telstra as Australia’s leading provider across mobile, fixed and pay-TV services by subscriptions in 2025.
Telstra generated A$11.641 billion in group revenue in 1H FY26, while profit attributable to equity holders increased 9.4 percent to A$1.124 billion.
Mobile remained a major growth driver, with income increasing 3.6 percent to A$5.769 billion and mobile services revenue rising 5.6 percent.
Telstra’s retail mobile services in operation expanded by 923,000 to 25.5 million, including 8.9 million postpaid handheld services. Postpaid handheld ARPU increased 4.8 percent to A$56.22.
IoT is emerging as another significant connectivity opportunity for Telstra. Its IoT connections increased by 1.4 million to 10.5 million.
Telstra expects FY26 business-as-usual capital expenditure of A$3.2 billion-A$3.5 billion, in addition to A$300 million-A$500 million in strategic investment. The telecom operator has also committed to increasing mobile network investment by A$800 million over four years.
CEO Vicki Brady is positioning AI, automation and network infrastructure as important elements of Telstra’s future strategy, with AI being deployed across customer interactions, employee productivity and increasingly autonomous network operations.
Optus Invests A$1.5 Billion as Revenue Reaches A$8.345 Billion
Optus is also strengthening its network and technology investments as competition intensifies in Australia’s 5G market.
Optus reported FY26 operating revenue of A$8.345 billion, up 2.1 percent. EBITDA increased 6 percent to A$2.356 billion, while EBIT climbed 23.1 percent to A$550 million.
Mobile revenue increased 2.7 percent in the second half, while Wholesale and Enterprise & Business Fixed revenue grew 4.1 percent.
Optus added 16,000 mobile customers during FY26, including 67,000 additional prepaid customers, although the gains were partly offset by reductions in postpaid and connected-device customers.
Blended mobile ARPU increased 2.4 percent, supported by postpaid price increases.
Optus invested approximately A$1.5 billion in networks and IT systems during FY26, slightly above FY25 investment. Spending covered network upgrades, maintenance and continued 5G expansion.
CEO Stephen Rue has indicated that Optus will continue investing in network resilience, IT systems, security, coverage, performance and 5G infrastructure.
TPG Telecom Adds 228,000 Mobile Subscribers
TPG Telecom is another beneficiary of rising demand for mobile connectivity, with regional network expansion supporting subscriber and revenue growth.
Its latest completed results are for FY25, with FY26 half-year results scheduled for August 21, 2026.
TPG Telecom’s FY25 service revenue increased 2.2 percent to A$4.179 billion, while mobile service revenue climbed 4.2 percent to A$2.423 billion.
The operator added 228,000 mobile subscribers, taking its total mobile customer base to 5.742 million. Mobile ARPU increased to A$35.51, an improvement of 49 cents from FY24.
EBITDA increased 18.4 percent to A$1.660 billion, while NPAT improved to A$52 million, compared with a A$140 million loss in FY24.
Cash capital expenditure excluding spectrum declined to A$774 million from A$892 million.
For FY26, TPG Telecom expects capex of approximately A$750 million and EBITDA of A$1.665 billion-A$1.735 billion.
CEO Iñaki Berroeta expects accelerated regional network expansion to support continued mobile subscriber growth, revenue and earnings.
Australia Fiber Broadband Growth Gets AUD3.8 Billion NBN Boost
Fixed broadband will remain another growth pillar for Australia’s telecom market, although its expansion will be slower than mobile data.
GlobalData expects fixed broadband revenue to increase at a 1 percent CAGR between 2025 and 2030, supported primarily by fiber and FWA connections.
NBN announced an AUD3.8 billion FTTN upgrade program in January 2025, designed to upgrade more than 95 percent of the 622,000 homes and businesses still relying on FTTN connections.
Existing network programs are expected to bring fiber within reach of approximately 11 million Australian homes and businesses by 2030.
NBN Co reported more than 8.647 million connected premises in December 2025, including 2.99 million FTTP connections, with FTTP connections increasing 24 percent year-on-year.
Revenue reached A$2.94 billion in the six months ended December 2025, up 2 percent, while EBITDA increased 5 percent to A$2.23 billion.
Telecommunications revenue grew 4 percent, helped by a A$3 increase in residential ARPU to A$52.
NBN Co invested A$1.49 billion in capex, representing a 22 percent decline.
Enterprise Connectivity and AI Open New Revenue Opportunities
Enterprise connectivity, fiber infrastructure and AI adoption could provide additional growth opportunities for Australia’s telecom operators beyond traditional consumer connectivity.
NBN Co’s business and enterprise revenue reached A$611 million in the first half of FY26, up 2 percent.
Telstra is expanding fiber capacity to accommodate increasing data and AI workloads while integrating AI into customer service, employee productivity and network operations.
Optus has launched its enterprise AI assistant, YesGPT, alongside broader organization-wide AI initiatives. TPG Telecom, meanwhile, is targeting continued growth in mobile revenue and EBITDA following its regional network expansion.
These strategies indicate that Australian telecom operators are increasingly looking beyond connectivity toward AI-enabled operations, enterprise digital services and high-capacity infrastructure to create new growth opportunities.
Mobile Data and 5G to Reshape Australia Telecom Market Through 2030
Australia’s telecom market is moving toward a connectivity model increasingly dominated by 5G, mobile data, fiber and FWA.
Overall telecom and pay-TV revenue is forecast to rise from $20.4 billion in 2025 to $22.5 billion by 2030 at a 2 percent CAGR, while mobile data revenue is expected to expand at a much stronger 5.8 percent CAGR. The proportion of mobile subscriptions using 5G is projected to exceed 88.7 percent by 2030.
Fixed broadband revenue will grow at a 1 percent CAGR, supported by fiber and FWA expansion.
The growth areas will be partly offset by structural declines in legacy services. Fixed voice revenue is expected to fall because of declining VoIP subscriptions and the discontinuation of circuit-switched services. Mobile voice will face pressure from OTT communications and declining voice ARPU.
Pay-TV revenue is also projected to decline as DTH and IPTV subscriptions fall and cord-cutting accelerates, with consumers increasingly shifting viewing time and spending toward OTT streaming platforms such as Netflix and Stan.
For Telstra, Optus and TPG Telecom, the biggest opportunities through 2030 will therefore center on capturing rising mobile data consumption, monetizing 5G through higher-value plans, expanding fiber connectivity and developing enterprise, AI and digital services as traditional telecom revenue streams continue to weaken.
FASNA SHABEER
