New Zealand’s telecom and pay‑TV services market is projected to grow steadily, with total revenue expected to rise at a compound annual growth rate of 1.2 percent, from $3.2 billion in 2024 to $3.4 billion by 2029.
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The growth is primarily supported by mobile data and fixed broadband services, even as traditional segments such as mobile voice and pay‑TV decline amid evolving consumer preferences and the adoption of next‑generation digital services, according to GlobalData’s New Zealand Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report.
New Zealand operators are leveraging this transitional market by accelerating network investments, expanding 5G coverage, and strengthening broadband infrastructure to capture higher ARPU and subscription growth. The country’s mature telecom market is increasingly data‑centric, with operators differentiating through network quality, bundled offerings, and digital service enhancements.
Market Dynamics and Revenue Trends
Mobile voice service revenue is expected to decline as operators bundle voice minutes into mobile plans and users shift toward app-based communication. Conversely, mobile data service revenue is forecast to grow at an estimated CAGR of 5.8 percent, driven by rising mobile internet subscriptions and 5G adoption, which command higher ARPU levels compared with legacy 4G connections.
4G remains the dominant technology, accounting for the majority of mobile subscriptions through 2029. However, 5G is expanding rapidly, with penetration expected to reach nearly 80 percent of all mobile subscriptions by 2030, according to forecasts. This surge in 5G adoption is supported by operator investments and wider availability of affordable 5G smartphones, reflecting New Zealand’s early position as a high‑coverage 5G market in the Asia-Pacific region.
For instance, in September 2025, One New Zealand added four new sites, including two 5G-enabled sites, and upgraded 18 existing sites. This brought its year-to-date total to 206 new or upgraded cell sites, with 155 now 5G-enabled, expanding fast, stable connectivity for a growing customer base.
Fixed broadband service revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.5 percent over 2024-2029, driven by FTTH and fixed wireless subscriptions. Government initiatives and operator investments have facilitated wider access to high-speed broadband, particularly in regional communities. For example, Chorus extended its fiber network to 59 new communities in July 2025, significantly improving broadband availability.
Pay-TV revenue is expected to decline as audiences increasingly adopt OTT video services, leading to lower ARPU in traditional pay-TV segments.
Operator Strategies, Investment, and Subscriber Metrics
New Zealand’s telecom market is dominated by Spark New Zealand, One NZ, and 2degrees, collectively controlling more than 97 percent of mobile subscriptions.
Spark New Zealand is leading the integrated services segment with over 2.6 million mobile connections and 660,000 broadband connections in FY25. Spark generated NZ$3.7 billion in revenue and invested over NZ$800 million in network and digital infrastructure upgrades, emphasizing 4G and 5G coverage expansion.
One NZ is maintaining strong market share through nationwide 4G and 5G coverage, enhanced by nearly 300 mobile site upgrades totaling NZD100 million in FY24 capex. Subscriber base reached approximately 2.2 million mobile connections.
2degrees NZ reported revenue of NZ$1.385 billion with growth in mobile and broadband services. Its strategy combines fixed and mobile offerings, supporting sustained ARPU gains and subscriber growth. Mobile subscriber base exceeds 1.6 million.
Mobile penetration in New Zealand exceeds 120 percent, reflecting a multi-SIM market where operators increasingly compete on network performance, 5G coverage, and bundled services. Fixed broadband penetration is rising steadily, driven by high-speed FTTH deployment and emerging fixed wireless alternatives, improving service flexibility and convenience.
Technology Investment and Market Outlook
GSMA reports indicate that New Zealand is on track to achieve near-universal 5G coverage by 2030, with operators focusing on network modernization to meet increasing data demand and deliver enhanced ARPU from mobile and broadband services. Fixed broadband growth, especially FTTH, is complemented by government-led digital inclusion initiatives and rising enterprise demand for reliable connectivity.
Overall, mobile data and fixed broadband will drive revenue growth, while legacy voice and pay-TV services decline. Operators’ strategic investments in 5G, broadband expansion, and digital service enhancements are expected to sustain competitive positioning, capture incremental ARPU, and strengthen long-term market resilience. Consumers and enterprises will benefit from faster, more reliable services and broader access to high-performance connectivity.
FASNA SHABEER
