The latest IDC report has indicated that the strong demand for Android phones will drive growth of smartphones in 2025.
IDC says worldwide smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 2.3 percent year-over-year in 2025, reaching 1.26 billion units. This will be marking the second consecutive year of recovery following a 6.1 percent growth in 2024.
Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said the growth in the smartphone market is driven by an accelerated Android market, particularly in China, where national subsidies and a surge in upgrade demand reversed prior declines.
Growth in the smartphone market is expected to remain in low single digits, with a 1.6 percent CAGR from 2024 to 2029, as increasing smartphone penetration, extended refresh cycles, and the rising used smartphone market pose challenges.
Android shipments are forecast to grow 2.5 percent in 2025, outpacing iOS by 40 percent, mainly due to a 5.6 percent increase in China, where government subsidies favor Android over Apple.
iOS will drop by 1.9 percent in China due to persistent challenges. Globally, iOS shipments will grow by 1.8 percent, driven by strong growth in the United States and emerging telecom markets such as India and Indonesia. Shipments of iOS will see increase of 18 percent in India and 9 percent in Indonesia.
Apple’s newly launched mid-tier iPhone 16E and Apple Intelligence rollout will sustain demand and keep average selling prices elevated. Despite making up only 19 percent of total smartphone shipments, Apple is projected to capture 45 percent of the market’s total value in 2025.
The U.S. smartphone market is set to grow by 3.3 percent in 2025 despite newly imposed 10 percent tariffs on Chinese imports, including smartphones. Growth will be supported by an aging installed base due for renewal, offsetting potential price hikes from tariffs. Since most U.S. consumers purchase smartphones via installment plans and trade-ins through telecom providers, the impact of rising average selling prices on purchasing decisions is expected to be minimal.
The global average selling price of smartphones is projected to increase slightly to $434 in 2025, balancing the influx of low-end Android models with continued premiumization at the high end. ASP is expected to remain relatively stable, experiencing a gradual decline over the forecast period to reach $424 by 2029.
Baburajan Kizhakedath
