The latest IDC report on smartphone business indicates smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 13.9 percent year over year in the first quarter of 2021 and 5.5 percent for the full year 2021.
This growth in smartphone business will be driven by recovery in demand and a supply-side push of 5G devices. The global smartphone market to deliver a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6 percent over the 2020-2025 forecast period.
IDC has seen accelerated growth in online channels, climbing to 27 percent share in 2020 from 20 percent the prior year, as channels adapt to the pandemic lifestyle, said Nabila Popal, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers.
“Ramp ups in production and improved channel planning combined with strong pent-up demand are all pointing to healthy growth in the months ahead.”
China and the United States are forecast to grow by 5.0 percent and 3.5 percent in 2021. The outlook for China remained stable despite several city-level lockdowns in January 2021.
Despite 10-11 percent decline for both markets in 2020 amidst the pandemic, 5G development and the success of the recently launched Apple iPhones are expected to boost shipments in 2021.
5G remains the driving factor in the industry, accelerated further by the success of Apple’s 5G iPhone 12 line up.
The worldwide 5G smartphone shipments will account for more than 40 percent in 2021 and grow to 69 percent in 2025.
Competition in the 5G Android space, particularly from Chinese vendors, will bring downward pressure on 5G ASPs. The report said 5G ASPs are expected to drop to $404 by the end of the forecast period in 2025.
