India’s telecom and pay-TV services market is set for steady expansion over the next five years, with total industry revenue forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of six percent, rising from $46.3 billion in 2024 to $61.9 billion by 2029. The growth will be primarily fueled by strong momentum in mobile data and fixed broadband services, according to GlobalData’s India Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report.
Mobile Data Emerges as the Key Growth Engine
Mobile data services will be the main contributor to revenue growth in India’s telecom sector. GlobalData estimates that mobile data revenue will expand at a compound annual growth rate of 10.6 percent between 2024 and 2029. This surge is being driven by rising smartphone penetration, increasing mobile internet subscriptions, and growing consumption of data-heavy services across 4G and 5G networks.
The introduction of tiered 5G plans, bundled digital content, and higher-ARPU premium offerings by telecom operators is also supporting revenue growth. As consumers migrate to faster networks and adopt data-intensive applications such as video streaming, online gaming, and cloud-based services, operators are increasingly focusing on monetizing data rather than voice.
Mobile Voice Revenue Continues to Decline
In contrast, mobile voice service revenue is expected to decline throughout the forecast period. The shift in consumer behavior toward OTT and internet-based communication platforms has significantly reduced reliance on traditional voice services. Additionally, unlimited voice calling bundled with mobile plans has led to a steady drop in voice ARPU levels, further pressuring revenues in this segment.
4G to Lead Until 2027, 5G to Dominate Thereafter
According to Hrushikesh Mahananda, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, 4G will remain the dominant mobile technology in terms of subscriptions until 2027. From that point onward, 5G subscriptions are expected to overtake 4G and account for nearly 59.4 percent of total mobile subscriptions by 2029.
This transition is being driven by aggressive 5G network expansion by leading operators. Vodafone Idea, the latest entrant in India’s 5G market, is rolling out services across multiple cities in its 17 priority circles. Meanwhile, unlimited 5G data plans offered by major telcos are accelerating customer adoption and supporting higher data usage.
Fixed Broadband Revenue to Offset Fixed Voice Decline
In the fixed communication services segment, fixed voice revenue will continue to decline between 2024 and 2029. This trend is largely due to falling fixed voice ARPU, as operators increasingly bundle unlimited voice calling with broadband plans at no additional cost.
However, fixed broadband revenue is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory. Rising demand for high-speed internet connectivity, driven by remote work, digital education, and streaming services, is boosting subscriptions across fiber and fixed wireless access connections.
Fiber and FWA to Drive Broadband Expansion
GlobalData highlights that expanding and modernizing fiber-optic infrastructure across India will be a key driver of FTTH and FTTB service revenue growth. Operators are investing heavily in fiber rollouts to meet growing demand for reliable, high-capacity broadband.
At the same time, fixed wireless access is emerging as a critical growth area, particularly in regions with limited fiber availability. The launch of 5G FWA services such as Reliance Jio’s Jio AirFiber and Bharti Airtel’s Xstream AirFiber in 2023 has accelerated adoption. Ongoing nationwide expansions of these services are enabling operators to deliver high-speed broadband to both households and businesses without extensive last-mile fiber deployment.
Pay-TV Revenue Under Pressure from OTT Platforms
India’s pay-TV market is expected to see continued revenue decline over the forecast period. The drop is attributed to falling cable TV and direct-to-home subscriptions as consumers increasingly shift toward OTT video streaming platforms. This transition is also leading to a decline in aggregate pay-TV ARPU, further impacting overall revenues in the segment.
Reliance Jio to Maintain Market Leadership
GlobalData projects that Reliance Jio will continue to lead India’s mobile services market in terms of subscriptions through 2029. Its extensive 4G coverage, rapid 5G rollouts, and focus on delivering high-speed data services position it well to capitalize on rising demand.
Jio is also expected to retain its leadership in the fixed broadband segment, supported by its strong presence in the fiber market and aggressive nationwide expansion of the JioFiber network. Together, these strengths are likely to reinforce Jio’s dominance across both mobile and fixed segments of India’s telecom industry over the coming years.
SHAFANA FAZAL
