Thailand’s telecom and pay-TV services revenue is forecast to stay nearly flat at around $10 billion annually, recording a CAGR of about 0.1 percent during 2024-2029, according to GlobalData.
Growth in fixed broadband, mobile data, and pay-TV will be offset by declining revenues from mobile voice, messaging, and fixed voice services.
Mobile voice revenue will fall due to lower ARPU as users shift to app-based communication and operators bundle free voice minutes.
Mobile data revenue will grow at a CAGR of 0.7 percent, supported by rising smartphone penetration, expanding mobile broadband subscriptions, increasing 5G adoption, and higher consumption of premium data plans.
While 4G dominated subscriptions in 2024, 5G is expected to become the leading technology by subscriber base by 2029, driven by network expansion and affordable devices.
Fixed voice revenue will decline amid falling circuit-switched subscriptions and ARPU, while fixed broadband revenue will grow at a 2.9 percent CAGR, led by higher-ARPU FTTH services and wider fiber rollout.
Pay-TV revenue will also rise, supported by strong IPTV growth and steady increases in DTH and cable TV subscriptions. Tru Corp is expected to retain mobile market leadership, while AIS will continue to lead the fixed broadband segment.
Mobile operators
True Corporation had around 48.5–49.4 million mobile subscribers by mid-2025, giving it the biggest customer base in the market.
True’s market share by subscribers is estimated at just over 50 percent, compared with AIS’s share at roughly 46–48 percent.
True leads in nationwide 5G coverage, reporting around 93 percent population coverage with 5G, supported by spectrum acquisitions across multiple frequency bands.
True has allocated significant capital to network consolidation and upgrades post-merger, including large-scale 5G infrastructure spending (around THB 28–30 billion planned for 2025) to enhance capacity and performance.
Advanced Info Service (AIS) remains a key competitor and the leading operator by revenue, and one of the largest by subscriber base with close to 46 million mobile customers as of mid-2025.
AIS invests heavily in 5G network expansion and spectrum acquisition, including innovative offerings tailored for high-usage customers. It has also expanded beyond mobile through acquisitions such as 3BB (fixed broadband) and stakes in infrastructure funds, allowing bundled services and broader service monetisation.
National Telecom (NT) focuses more on wholesale and legacy services and has been in discussions about divesting some retail assets to the larger operators.
Capex
For 2025, AIS has planned a capital expenditure (Capex) budget of about Bt 26-27 billion, focused on expanding mobile 5G networks, fixed broadband (fiber), and digital infrastructure to improve network quality and support broader services coverage.
True has targeted a Capex of about Bt 28-30 billion for 2025, similar in scale to AIS, primarily for 5G rollout and network integration following the merger of True and dtac.
National Telecom (NT) had a much smaller investment budget, with an initial 2024 Capex of around Bt 6 billion aimed mostly at fiber and public Wi-Fi upgrading; this was later revised downward.
Satellite operator Thaicom continues to invest in project-specific initiatives, with contracts worth over Bt 350 million in early 2025.
Fixed broadband
Following AIS’s acquisition of Triple T Broadband (3BB) and a stake in the Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund, AIS became the largest fixed broadband provider in Thailand.
As of Q3-Q4 2025, the combined AIS 3BB FIBRE3 broadband user base reached approximately 5.0–5.2 million subscribers.
AIS has allocated significant Capex of around THB 26-27 billion in 2025 to enhance nationwide broadband infrastructure, including high-speed fiber upgrades and integration of the AIS and 3BB systems. This investment supports broadband network expansion, improved service quality, and bundled digital offerings.
True Online, the fixed broadband arm of True Corporation (post-merger of TrueMove and dtac), is a key competitor in the fixed broadband segment. True Online had an estimated fixed broadband subscriber base of around 3.7-3.8 million by the end of 2024/early 2025.
True makes investment in fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) and higher-speed broadband plans to deepen penetration, especially in urban and high-demand areas. While the annual Capex figures are typically bundled with mobile network and 5G investment, overall True has been guiding capex of roughly THB 25-30 billion annually, part of which underpins its broadband infrastructure enhancements.
True’s focus has also been on network modernization, integration, and capacity upgrades — benefiting both fixed and mobile broadband services — with investments reflected in integration and improvement costs reported for 2025.
BABURAJAN KIZHAKEDATH