Projection on private wireless RAN revenue lowered

Total private wireless RAN revenues – including wide-area (traditional and new) and small cells – are projected to grow at a 24 percent CAGR between 2022 and 2027, Dell’Oro Group said.
Public RAN (Total RAN minus private RAN) is projected to decline at a 2 percent CAGR between 2022 and 2027. Private small cell RAN revenue projections remain on track to surpass $1 billion by 2027.

5G is dominating in China while LTE is dominating outside of China – 5G NR is projected to surpass LTE by 2026.

Largest public RAN suppliers, including Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia, are well positioned in this initial private LTE / 5G phase. Enterprises and operators appear more willing to try out non-traditional RAN suppliers in some private wireless settings.

The launch of private 5G services by suppliers with strong enterprise channels and/or the introduction of a new device could accelerate the demand for 5G in the enterprise. 5G awareness is improving but it will take some time for enterprises to understand the value of private LTE/5G.

Pricing also needs to evolve as the competitive landscape for turnkey solutions improve – some of the price points we see right now for 3- and 5-year leases run the risk of squelching penetration, especially in the mid-market Wi-Fi like segment.