TrendForce’s analysis indicates that smartphone buyers may face higher prices and fewer hardware upgrades in 2026, as memory prices are set to rise sharply in the first quarter of the year. The increase in DRAM and NAND costs is putting major pressure on device manufacturers, forcing them to rethink pricing strategies, product specifications, and upgrade cycles.
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Memory is now taking up a larger share of the bill of materials in both smartphones and PCs. Even Apple, known for its strong profit margins, is expected to see memory contribute significantly more to iPhone production costs in early 2026. This could lead the company to revisit its pricing strategy for new models and scale back price cuts for older devices.
IDC earlier said global smartphone shipments are expected to decline 0.9 percent in 2026, a downgrade from the earlier projection of 1.2 percent growth. IDC attributes this to component shortages, a global memory supply crunch, and shifts in product launch cycles. Apple’s decision to move its next base iPhone release from late 2026 to early 2027 will reduce iOS shipments by an estimated 4.2 percent next year.
The memory shortage will also raise costs and limit supply, particularly affecting lower-priced Android models. Despite the dip in unit shipments, higher average selling prices will lift the market’s overall value to a record USD 578.9 billion, with ASP rising to USD 465, IDC said.
Omdia report recently said India smartphone market will face modest decline in 2025 though vendors reallocated marketing budgets to high-impact retail incentive programs that rewarded sell-through, ranging from cash-per-unit bonuses to tiered margins and dealer contests with rewards such as gold coins, bikes, and international trips.
TrendForce report said Android smartphone makers, especially those in the mid- and low-end segments, will be hit even harder. In these price-sensitive categories, memory is a key selling point and a major cost factor. Rising component costs will likely push brands to increase launch prices for 2026 models and adjust the pricing or lifecycle of current devices to avoid losses. Buyers shopping in the budget and mid-range categories should therefore expect fewer spec upgrades and higher price tags.
Notebook manufacturers are also preparing for tighter margins. High-end ultrathin models, which use soldered mobile DRAM and have little flexibility to downgrade components, are expected to see early and significant price pressure. While current inventory levels and low-cost memory supplies are helping notebook brands maintain short-term stability, TrendForce expects more noticeable pricing shifts by the second quarter of 2026.
Across both smartphones and laptops, brands are increasingly turning to cost-saving measures such as delaying memory upgrades or reducing specifications. DRAM, which accounts for the largest share of memory expenses, is the primary area of adjustment. High-end and mid-range smartphones may keep RAM capacities close to minimum recommended levels, slowing down the usual pace of upgrades. The low-end smartphone segment will feel this most, with base models expected to return to 4GB RAM in 2026.
Budget notebooks, however, cannot cut memory as quickly due to processor requirements and operating system limitations. This means price adjustments rather than spec reductions may become the more common path for laptop brands.
For buyers, the message is clear: expect higher prices, slower upgrades, and more cautious model refreshes in 2026 as manufacturers navigate rising memory costs and supply pressures.
Baburajan Kizhakedath