The global smartphone industry is facing renewed turbulence as Counterpoint Research slashes its 2025 shipment growth forecast to just 1.9 percent, down from the previously expected 4.2 percent.
The key driver: escalating uncertainty surrounding the reimposition of U.S. tariffs under Donald Trump, which is threatening to derail supply chains, hike costs, and dampen consumer demand across several major markets, Counterpoint Research said in its report.
According to IDC’s latest report, global smartphone shipments are projected to grow modestly by 0.6 percent year-over-year in 2025, reaching 1.24 billion units. This marks a downgrade from the earlier 2.3 percent growth.
Counterpoint Research said the impact due to Donald Trump’s tariffs is already evident in regional outlooks. While emerging markets like India, Southeast Asia, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) continue to show resilience — thanks to premiumization trends and appetite for high-end devices —North America and China are projected to lag. These two regions are particularly exposed to geopolitical tensions, and manufacturers like Apple and Samsung are increasingly vulnerable due to their reliance on U.S. sales and China-based production.
“All eyes are on Apple and Samsung,” said Liz Lee, Associate Director at Counterpoint Research. “Although tariffs have played a role in our forecast revisions, we are also factoring in weakened demand not just in North America but across Europe and parts of Asia.” Apple’s iPhone 16 series is still expected to drive positive growth, but overall pricing pressure due to tariff-related cost pass-throughs may weigh on broader market performance.
The uncertainty is forcing smartphone OEMs to rethink their pricing and sourcing strategies. With tariff policy remaining fluid and politically charged, many brands are caught in a holding pattern — hesitant to commit to large-scale production shifts or aggressive pricing, both of which are essential to stimulate post-pandemic demand recovery.
“Trade policy rhetoric is once again a wild card,” said Ethan Qi, another Associate Director at Counterpoint. “The unpredictability of tariffs is making it extremely difficult for OEMs to plan their supply chains and pricing strategies, which ultimately hurts consumers through delayed launches and higher prices.”
One bright spot in the global landscape is Huawei, which is overcoming sourcing hurdles and eyeing share gains in mid-to-lower-end segments, especially within China. While a global resurgence may still be premature, improving supply chain dynamics could enable Huawei to rebuild its international presence over the medium term.
IDC outlook
IDC said the global smartphone industry is expected to grow at a slow pace, with a five-year CAGR of just 1.4 percent, affected by rising smartphone penetration, longer replacement cycles, and increased competition from used devices, Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said in the research report.
China and the US remain the key drivers of 2025 growth. China is forecast to grow 3 percent thanks to government subsidies that are favoring Android devices. However, Apple is expected to see a 1.9 percent decline in the country due to intensifying competition from Huawei and limited subsidy eligibility for iPhones. Still, Apple may benefit from promotional campaigns like the 618 shopping festival and the anticipated iPhone 17 launch.
In the US, growth is revised down to 1.9 percent from 3.3 percent, largely due to the US-China trade war and resulting tariff-induced price increases. However, the US market structure — dominated by carrier-led purchases with trade-in incentives and financing — has helped cushion the impact of rising prices.
IDC also warns of heightened geopolitical and tariff risks. Although current exemptions have provided temporary relief, potential new tariffs on smartphones manufactured outside the US could significantly disrupt vendor strategies and hurt market performance. India and Vietnam are expected to gain importance as alternative manufacturing hubs, but proposed tariffs of 20–30 percent on US-bound smartphones could seriously challenge the US market outlook.
Baburajan Kizhakedath