Chris Antlitz, TBR Principal Telecom Analyst, says the transition to 6G faces substantial concerns that may significantly shape its development and deployment.
Uncertain Return on Investment (ROI): Telecom companies are already grappling with realizing ROI on 5G, and this issue may hinder 6G investment as well. Without a clear financial benefit, private sector investment in 6G could be insufficient, which may slow down or limit the rollout.
Limited Private Sector Appetite: Due to limited 5G profitability, Communication Service Providers (CSPs) are cautious. This reluctance suggests that 6G investment will likely be lower, with more tactical, targeted deployments rather than the extensive, costly infrastructure builds seen in previous generations.
Increased Government Role: Given these challenges, the government’s role may expand considerably, with more funding, R&D support, and stimulus likely. Governments are expected to invest in 6G as a strategic national asset, viewing it as essential for economic and technological leadership.
Timeline and Potential Impact: Initial commercial 6G networks are projected for the late 2020s, yet there is skepticism about whether 6G will deliver genuinely innovative features that drive economic value or simply function as a branding evolution over 5G.
National Security and Strategic Value: Recognizing 6G’s importance, governments may prioritize its development to ensure competitiveness and technological advancement, suggesting that 6G’s trajectory may ultimately depend on public-sector support and investment.
#1 Prediction
TBR’s predictions for 6G focus on the strategic use of midband spectrum, technological adaptations, and the integration of multiple frequency bands to maximize 6G performance. Here are the key points:
Upper Midbands as Core Spectrum for 6G: The 7GHz-24GHz range, particularly 7GHz-15GHz, is viewed as the optimal “golden range” for 6G. This frequency band offers a balance between coverage and capacity and has significant bandwidth potential, with around 1600MHz available in the U.S.
Spectrum Sharing Challenges: A key issue for CSPs is the need to share this frequency range with incumbent users like government and satellite operators. Managing coexistence could involve spectrum sharing, clearance, or refarming, similar to the existing CBRS model in the 3.5GHz band.
Multi-Band Strategy: TBR anticipates that 6G will rely on a combination of midband, upper midband, and mmWave frequencies. Carrier aggregation and technologies like beamforming will enable better performance by combining these bands.
Indoor Coverage Limitations: FR3 spectrum (7GHz-24GHz) is limited in its ability to penetrate walls, creating challenges for indoor connectivity. Since most wireless traffic occurs indoors, lower frequency bands may be essential for ensuring consistent indoor coverage.
#2 prediction
No Major Capex Surge: Unlike previous cellular generations, 6G is not expected to drive high capital expenditures (capex) for CSPs. Telecom operators may adopt a more cautious investment approach due to limited returns on investments from LTE and 5G.
Limited Monetization Opportunities: CSPs face challenges in finding lucrative revenue streams from 6G. The limited success of monetization with LTE and 5G has made the telecom industry hesitant to commit to large-scale investments in 6G.
Dominance of Hyperscalers: Hyperscalers (e.g., major cloud providers) are expected to dominate high-value 6G use cases, such as drone delivery and autonomous transportation. This trend mirrors their role in LTE and 5G, potentially reducing operators’ motivation to invest as hyperscalers capture the bulk of revenue opportunities.
#3 prediction
Increased Governmental Role: The lack of a clear ROI for private sector investment in 6G may lead governments to play a more active role in supporting the telecom industry, as they did during the early 5G era. This includes direct funding, loans, subsidies, and market support.
Stimulus and Support Programs: Governments are expected to use mechanisms similar to those applied in 5G development—such as stimulus funding, low-interest loans, and subsidies—to support 6G R&D and infrastructure. Many nations have already established consortiums and initiatives to drive 6G market development.
Strategic Importance: 6G is seen as crucial for national security and societal innovation, making it a priority for continued investment. Governments view telecom infrastructure as foundational to economic development and technological leadership.
Global Focus: Leading tech nations (e.g., the U.S., China, Japan, South Korea) and regional blocs like the EU are anticipated to invest significantly in 6G initiatives, from infrastructure subsidies to direct financial backing for companies related to national security.
Baburajan Kizhakedath