According to Nokia’s latest Middle East and Africa (MEA) Broadband Index report, the total number of mobile subscriptions in the region is projected to rise by 30 percent, from 1,764 million in 2023 to 2,293 million by 2029. This growth is largely attributed to the increasing adoption of 4G and 5G technologies.
By 2029, 4G subscriptions are expected to peak at 1,167 million, while 5G subscriptions will see a significant surge, rising from 41 million in 2023 to 519 million by the end of the decade. 5G will account for 23 percent of all subscriptions in the region by 2029, a substantial leap from just 2 percent in 2023.
The report highlights a steady shift from legacy 2G and 3G networks to more advanced 4G and 5G technologies. By 2029, 74 percent of all subscriptions in the region will be either 4G (51 percent) or 5G (23 percent).
Regional Insights:
GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council): Leading the 5G revolution, the GCC is set to have 90 percent of its subscriptions on 5G by 2029, thanks to government support and heavy investment in infrastructure.
Central, East, and West Africa (CEWA): 5G adoption here will be slower, reaching just 16 percent of subscriptions by 2029 due to challenges like infrastructure and affordability.
Levant and Pakistan: 4G will dominate with a 66 percent share of subscriptions, while 5G adoption remains limited.
Southern Africa: Faster 5G growth is anticipated, with 26 percent of subscriptions expected to be on 5G by 2029, driven by heightened competition and investments.
North Africa: 4G will remain dominant, accounting for 64 percent of subscriptions, with gradual 5G adoption as consumers continue transitioning from older networks.
The report also notes growth in machine-to-machine (M2M) and IoT subscriptions, particularly in the GCC region, where they are expected to rise from 22 million in 2024 to 40 million by 2029, accounting for 28 percent of the market by the end of the decade.
Nokia’s latest report emphasizes the growing dominance of video streaming in mobile data consumption across the Middle East and Africa. From 2024 to 2029, video streaming is expected to account for the largest share of data traffic, driven by the increasing popularity of streaming services. This rapid growth in video traffic will challenge service providers to upgrade their network infrastructure to meet rising demand.
The surge in Over-the-Top (OTT) voice applications, such as internet-based calling services, has also impacted legacy voice traffic, altering traditional usage patterns and driving up data consumption. As voice traffic shifts to Voice over LTE (VoLTE) and data demand on 4G and 5G networks grows, there is an urgent need to enhance and expand these networks.
Key Insights:
4G Network Dominance: Across all regions, 4G is the primary driver of data traffic, accounting for 65 percent in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and up to 93 percent in the Levant and Pakistan. The ongoing shift from 3G to 4G highlights strong adoption of faster networks.
Data-Centric Consumption: Data revenue is projected to make up 75 percent of total telecom revenue by 2029, reflecting the shift towards data-focused services as consumers increasingly rely on mobile internet over traditional voice and messaging services.
Infrastructure Investment: To keep up with rising data demand and higher speeds, telecom operators must invest heavily in network upgrades. The increasing reliance on mobile internet services underscores the importance of modernizing infrastructure.
New Revenue Streams: With the decline of traditional voice and SMS revenue, telecom operators are expected to explore new avenues such as value-added services, digital services, and content delivery to sustain growth.
Rising Competition: The focus toward data-centric services will likely intensify competition among operators as they strive to attract customers with appealing data packages and innovative services.
Baburajan Kizhakedath