Nokia’s Mobile Broadband Index Report 2025 highlights the rapid acceleration of 5G adoption across the Middle East and Africa (MEA), projecting a significant shift in mobile connectivity by 2030. According to the report, 82 percent of all connections in the region will operate on 4G or 5G networks, with 5G subscriptions reaching 605 million, driving 53 percent of total mobile data traffic. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is poised to lead this transformation, with 91 percent of subscriptions expected to be on 5G.
The report underscores the rising role of 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), projected to grow from 15 percent in 2023 to 35 percent by 2030, offering cost-efficient and faster deployment compared to traditional fiber. These advancements are fueled by strong operator investments and government-led digital initiatives, enabling the development of IoT ecosystems, smart cities, autonomous transport, smart agriculture, advanced healthcare, and enterprise solutions. Integration with edge computing and AI is anticipated to unlock further productivity and innovation opportunities across industries.
Operator revenue across the Middle East and Africa region is forecast to reach $82 billion in 2029 from $25 billion in 2024.
Mobile Subscriptions and 4G/5G Growth
By 2029, total mobile subscriptions in MEA are projected to reach 2.29 billion, a 30 percent increase from 2023, driven primarily by 4G and 5G adoption. 4G subscriptions will rise from 801 million to 1.17 billion, peaking at 54 percent in 2027, while 5G subscriptions will surge from 41 million to 519 million, representing 23 percent of total subscriptions. Collectively, 4G and 5G will account for 74 percent of subscriptions, signaling a clear move away from legacy 2G and 3G networks.
Regional dynamics vary: the GCC will dominate 5G adoption with 90 percent of subscriptions by 2029, while Southern Africa will see faster 5G uptake at 26 percent, and CEWA will reach 16 percent due to infrastructure and affordability challenges. In the Levant & Pakistan, 4G will remain dominant at 66 percent, while North Africa stays 4G-heavy at 64 percent, showing a diverse pace of digital transition across MEA.
Smartphone Dominance and Digital Inclusion
Smartphones are projected to account for 78 percent of subscriptions by 2029, up from over 60 percent today, supported by affordability, subsidies, and financing options. This expansion is critical for digital inclusion, providing broader access to education, healthcare, and financial services. Meanwhile, feature phones will decline from 28 percent in 2022 to 11 percent by 2029, paving the way for the shutdown of 2G and 3G networks. Additionally, M2M/IoT and other data device subscriptions are steadily rising, reflecting growing demand for connected devices.
By 2029, smartphone adoption will vary by region:
GCC: 81 million in 2024 → 89 million in 2029 (market share 70 percent → 63 percent)
CEWA: 494 million → 802 million (61 percent → 76 percent)
Levant & Pakistan: 320 million → 402 million (78 percent → 82 percent)
Southern Africa: 119 million → 137 million (70 percent market share)
North Africa: 268 million → 350 million (80 percent → 86 percent)
5G Data Traffic and Monetization Opportunities
5G will drive 90 percent of total data traffic by 2029, powered by rapid adoption and demand for high-speed services. Operators have significant monetization opportunities via network slicing, FWA, IoT applications, Industry 4.0 solutions, and edge computing. Regional initiatives such as Saudi Vision 2030, Oman Digital 2030, and Kuwait National Development Plan 2035 are accelerating 5G deployment.
Meanwhile, 4G continues to play a key role:
CEWA: 51 percent of total data traffic in 2029
Levant & Pakistan: 74 percent of total data traffic
Southern Africa: 55 percent of total data traffic
Countries leading in 5G data traffic include Ethiopia (44 percent), Nigeria (11 percent), and Kenya (9 percent), with South Africa generating 85 percent of Southern Africa’s traffic due to robust infrastructure.
Rapid Data Traffic Growth
Overall, data traffic in MEA is expected to triple between 2024 and 2029, with 4G leading the growth while 5G surges 94-fold over the same period. North Africa will maintain a higher share of 4G traffic, reflecting a more established infrastructure and larger user base.
Nokia’s 2025 Mobile Broadband Index paints a dynamic picture of MEA’s mobile evolution, highlighting widespread smartphone adoption, diverse regional trends, and the transformative impact of 5G on connectivity, digital services, and economic growth.
Baburajan Kizhakedath